Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

[Magician]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

Re: di clip weh illary a bawl...

(respec fi di link ear Jaded [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/notworthy.gif[/img])

She a act. A nuh genuine tear dat. [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/70400-talktohand.gif[/img]

Memba how Bill use to lower im voice an speak low an compassionate.

A im mussi teach her fi dweet.

[Jazz]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Magic</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Re: di clip weh illary a bawl...

(respec fi di link ear Jaded [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/notworthy.gif[/img])

She a act. A nuh genuine tear dat. [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/70400-talktohand.gif[/img]

Memba how Bill use to lower im voice an speak low an compassionate.

A im mussi teach her fi dweet. </div></div>

unfortunately - man bawl... im sensitive - woman bawl... she weak (in dis scenario anyway)

[Magician]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

Nuh man she act.
She a try fi show her human side afta she hear seh ppl tink she cold.

So she a front like she warm up now afta she realise seh di cold tallawa ting nuh work in IO an NH.

[jamaica_dreamin]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Magic</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Nuh man she act.
She a try fi show her human side afta she hear seh ppl tink she cold.

So she a front like she warm up now afta she realise seh di cold tallawa ting nuh work in IO an NH. </div></div>

I agree.

[seemiyah]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire


So true, Bush be bawling all di time and people say aww he so caring blah blah blah.... anyway mi a read what people have to say on cnn bout Barack and I am finding it truly interesting

I am a 62-year-old white Republican in Virginia. I have voted only once for a Democrat for President in the past 36 years. Not only would I vote for Barack Obama in November if he is on the ballot, I will for the first time in my life vote in the Democratic primary, so that I can help put him on that ballot. And I'm not that unusual in my peer group. I know for a fact that other Republicans will support him in the primary -- and it is because they want to see him as President. And that thing about his middle name being "Hussain" -- well, that's a real plus internationally, where we aren't doing so well lately. Talk about throwing the world a curve ball! Barack Obama is the Tiger Woods of politics. And by the way, white America didn't see Colin Powell as being black either -- just an American. Things have sure changed a lot in the last four decades, and I've seen them happen and I will being seeing more history being made in November.

Here on the eve of the NH primary, I've just come home from seeing Barack Obama in Rochester NH and I must testify that in my experience with politics I've never felt anything like what I witnessed tonight. What an inspirational guy to have so transformed the packed quarters of the Rochester Opera House into one united body. And it's not simply about oratorial talent--it's him, and his authenticity beams through. I'm convinced there's no stopping Barack Obama. I'm sorry for the Democratic candidates who'll lose in tomorrow's primary, because they're all also such good people. But in the end, this all isn't about winners and losers--it's about America winning, and about hope; and this wonderful, hopeful man inspires hope, and makes this American feel my country may yet again be something Americans and non-Americans alike can be proud of.

[Nylah]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: MrsMarieK</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: HemGee</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: MrsMarieK</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: HemGee</div><div class="ubbcode-body">it is possible that voters may be more ready for a black male president than a woman president.
</div></div>

[img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/confused.gif[/img] u really think so?

Katrina anyone? </div></div>
Katrina exposed America and American racism. You think MarieK that people, black and white, won't want better after that, that there were no lessons learned?
</div></div>

MG - u have to really understand the depth to which racism exist here. I watched an interview with a woman who was crying during a town-hall meeting with Dick Cheney and she said "you have my support" however this was after she stated that they have lost their home due to the lack fo assistance regarding healthcare when he husband became ill. U really see that woman getting fed up enuff to vote for a black man.

People want change but they wont want to be led to that change by a negro (of course they wont pronounce it like that). As my friend said it's great that Obama is running but now's not the best time too much at stake here.

Do you think he has the power to remove all the racially implemented policies in America? If he wins I don't know how much more effective he will be. Do you honestly beleive that those who voted for Dubya will vote for him.

Dont' get me wrong if he wins the dem. nominations I will vote for him but even if he wins I dont' know hwo long he'll last (literally).

he can't play up to the white side of his family either cuz if he has one drop of black blood in him he's a n*gger according to the law of the land.

As I said, he was too soft comin gout and I never paid him any attention however, he has redeemed himself in my eyes but I also am aware of how "they" think [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/frown.gif[/img]

We are NEVER going to be equal </div></div>


this is what I was waiting for! [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/70409-waytogo.gif[/img]

[Jazz]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

He went somewhere to speak yestersday (in NH of course) - the place was packed to overflowing and they could not accomodate all - so after he gave his speech inside he went outside and spoke to those masses who stood out there.

He is hoarse and his docs. r advising him to drink lemon and rest his voice...

not bloody likely... whether u like him as a candidate or not u have to admit that man has charisma.

[kia027]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

It would be interesting to archive this thread and then look at it again a few months from now to see what has changed.

[X]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Jazz</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: MrsMarieK</div><div class="ubbcode-body">[
We are NEVER going to be equal </div></div>

But we should NEVER stop fighting until we are! </div></div>

well actually - mi think wi SUPERIOR.. But hey thats just my humble opinion..

[mountaingal]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Kia</div><div class="ubbcode-body">It would be interesting to archive this thread and then look at it again a few months from now to see what has changed. </div></div>

great idea!! [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/70409-waytogo.gif[/img]

[Jazz]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

Well McCain just won the the NH Republican primary... they say Obama / Clinton too close to call but Clinton is leading with 40% and Obama has 36%

[mountaingal]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

lookslike Hillary bawling worked. heard one woman earier this evening said it made her more sympathetic to hillary and so she was planning to switch her vote from edwards.

[Jazz]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

The Big Mo': How Senator Obama gained the momentum
By Leonard Doyle in Manchester, New Hampshire
Published: 09 January 2008
When the historians come to write about this election they will have to put aside their reference materials and start again, because the power of the movement behind Barack Obama has taken everyone by surprise, not least that master political strategist Bill Clinton.

It is a movement that has generated for the Illinois senator what commentators in the US are calling "the big mo", the extraordinary electoral momentum that he is using to to crush the Clinton operation.

Mr Obama's soaring rhetoric is one factor that conveyed his messages of "change" and "hope". But critical to "the big mo" is also a set of brilliantly effective campaigning skills he honed on the mean streets of Chicago's South Side where he first started out, knocking on doors as a community organiser at the age of 24. Long before seeking elected office, Mr Obama steeped himself in the ways of street agitation and local empowerment and became a master of grass-roots organisation.

The evidence was everywhere in his New Hampshire campaign. At his Manchester headquarters, until the last hours before the vote, volunteers were filing in to pick up their canvassing materials while a phone bank was targeting wavering voters.

Wherever Mr Obama made one of his speeches this week, he began by thanking the army of precinct workers and volunteers who have turned his campaign into a political phenomenon. Mr Obama knows he will need the support of every member of his ragtag army in the days ahead when the Clinton political machine throws every weapon in its arsenal at his political movement.

The Obama campaign knows that the blows will be as low as they are relentless as Hillary Clinton expends what remains of her $100m (£50m) war chest in a final attempt to crush her younger but more streetwise opponent.

As she has learnt to her cost in Iowa and New Hampshire, the classic political playbook of carpet-bombing your opponent does not work when the insurgency uses unconventional methods not previously seen in a US presidential campaign.

"We have been preparing for this moment for months," said David Axelrod, the Obama campaign's chief strategist. "We know that we are up against the most formidable political machine of our generation in the Democratic Party in the Clintons. For now the most important thing is our organisation on the ground."

In every speech, Mr Obama takes care to address his volunteer movement as he did again in New Hampshire at midnight in a school gymnasium full of supporters about to vote.

"It's not about me, it's about you," he said, his voice hoarse and ragged. "We will change the mindset that got us into the war in Iraq. We are weary of politics based on spin and PR, and we will be telling the American people not what they want to hear, but what they need to hear."

At the heart of the Obama method is a determination to remain respectful. Whether it is adamant refusal to allow his staff to brief negatively about his opponents or his taking the time to thank those who help him.

The owner of the Baby Boomer fast-food restaurant beside one of his campaign headquarters in New Hampshire described his shock at getting a personal phone call of thanks for all the late-night food he had been providing for his staff. "I can't believe what's just happened," he said. "I got a call from Barack and I thought it was someone having me on."

A generation of black agitators and politicians mobilised the politics of the street and used the raw anger of the ghetto to bring about change in the US. But the way shown by Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton simply terrified the rest of America.

The difference with Mr Obama is that he is doing it all without anger. The changes he wants to bring about will be just as revolutionary in a country that has witnessed an extraordinary explosion in wealth among the few, while turning its back on the poor and the struggling middle class. But Mr Obama's message of change is somehow not nearly as frightening to corporate America as that of his more populist Democratic rival John Edwards.

Somehow he seems to be telling Americans what they already know about their broken society, and providing a road map to fix it that even Republicans can subscribe to.

Mr Obama's odyssey as a community organiser began at the age of 24 when he said no to a Wall Street career and instead responded to a small ad in The New York Times for a job to get Chicago's numerous churches to start pulling together to help their communities. The tiny organisation he worked for followed the teachings of the radical organiser, Saul Alinsky, whose instruction was to "rub raw the sores of discontent". The Alinsky method is all about winning power rather than seeking to do good and the young Barack Obama became a master practitioner of the method.

But the organisation he worked for, comprised almost entirely of white street agitators, could make no inroads into Chicago's black community. Mr Obama was its front man, going door-to-door, trying to get the city to remove asbestos from public housing, and getting a job database set up in the impoverished South Side.

His breakthrough was to successfully reach out to the mostly black churches of the neighbourhood and to persuade them to work together for change in the community for the first time. He made up for the limitations of street protest by engaging an army of volunteers and often conservative churchgoers.

He joined a church and by 1995 was laying out his vision of the successful agitator politician: "What if a politician were to see his job as that of an organiser, as part-teacher and part-advocate; one who does not sell voters short but who educates them about the real choices before them? As an elected public official, for instance, I could bring church and community leaders together easier than I could as a community organiser or lawyer."

His pastor and mentor was the Rev Dr Jeremiah A Wright. The title of Mr Obama's recent book, The Audacity of Hope, which sets out the need to establish common ground in an age of political polarisation, is based on Dr Wright's more passionate sermon about racial inequality. Mr Obama has taken the fire of the church and the anger of the Chicago street and moulded it into a political campaign based on hope and change. A lot of Democrats are fearful of supporting him because they have seen a similar campaign go up in smoke in the past.

That was the story of the protest campaign of the former California governor Jerry Brown that fizzled in 1992. Bill Bradley also raised Democratic hopes with the delusion that his campaign was above politics, but crashed and burned too, as did the internet-fuelled run of Howard Dean which collapsed in YouTube ignominy in 2004 with his famous scream.

As Mr Obama explained to his supporters this week, the fact that he campaigns on a theme of "hope" (the Clinton campaign has derided him as a "hope-monger") should not be taken for a declaration of unilateral disarmament on the campaign trail. His will be a movement that brings about change in politics, "not from the top down but from the bottom up".

At his New Hampshire headquarters for the past six months, his campaign staffers have been training their "precinct captains" who were in charge of getting out the vote, rounding up Obama supporters all day. On the eve of the vote they had taken over two large rooms in Manchester next door to the probation service. The walls were plastered with maps while the floor was a grid of packages waiting for collection.

They were operating to instructions put together 300 miles away, in Washington DC, where 50 computers have been mining census data and consumer-marketing information to put together what has been described as "the most sophisticated and data-rich portraits of an electorate ever created". It is the work of one of the Democratic Party's top number crunchers, Ken Strasma, whose company Strategic Telemetry helped secure the nomination for John Kerry in 2004. In what seems like ancient political history, Bill Clinton's former pollster Mark Penn invented the concept of the "soccer mom" as the idealised wavering voter to target. In the 2004 race, the pollsters could identify 4x4 drivers as likely Republicans and Prius drivers as convinced Democrats.

The advances the Obama campaign has made can virtually identify the DNA of target voters. It uses something called "micro-targeting technology" to use a range of data – everything from income to education – to divine whether the campaign should directly target a voter. It is called getting the "demographic DNA" and it has enabled the campaign to make multiple house calls and phone calls to draw in voters.

The secret weapon Mr Obama has brought to his campaign was learnt over years of going door- to-door in Chicago and learning what a corrupting influence the Democratic Party could have at a local level. He also acknowledge that many Americans who want to get on in the world are willing to vote Republican, even if mired in poverty themselves.

Many in the Democratic Party despaired at natural supporters being hoodwinked into voting against their economic interests, and delivering the White House to the Republicans twice in succession. But Mr Obama saw an opportunity to reach out to Republicans, just as Ronald Reagan swept to power on the back of disenchanted Democrats.

One of the loudest cheers he received on the eve of the vote was when he announced that his campaign welcomed Republicans as fellow travellers on the road to bring radical change in Washington. The question everyone now wants answered is whether the political Pied Piper they are following has the staying power to take them through a long struggle with the battle-hardened Clinton political machine.

[Jazz]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: HemGee</div><div class="ubbcode-body">lookslike Hillary bawling worked. heard one woman earier this evening said it made her more sympathetic to hillary and so she was planning to switch her vote from edwards. </div></div>

That would only move women... [img]/forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/whistle.gif[/img]

[Jazz]

Re: Obama rockets past Clinton in New Hampshire

Iowa, New Hampshire, and the Crystal Ball
January 08, 2008 07:40 PM ET | Permanent Link


A quick pass through past election-year results provides some interesting insights for today's first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primaries.

1. At first glance, New Hampshire voters appear to be a relatively good predictor of each party's eventual nominee:

-- On the Republican side, the winner of the Granite State has become the party's nominee in seven of the past nine elections. The two exceptions are recent: Sen. John McCain won New Hampshire in 2000 but lost the nomination to George W. Bush; Pat Buchanan won in 1996 but lost the nomination to Sen. Bob Dole.

-- On the Democratic side, the winner here has been the party's nominee in six of the past nine elections. The three exceptions: Sen. Paul Tsongas in 1992, Sen. Gary Hart in 1984, and Sen. Edmund Muskie in 1972.

2. Interestingly, the prediction rates decline dramatically when excluding election years in which an incumbent was running:

-- For Republicans, the winner of New Hampshire was the party's nominee in just two of the four elections that had no Republican incumbent: Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George Bush in 1988.

-- For Democrats, the winner of New Hampshire was the party's nominee in four of the seven elections with no Democratic incumbent. They were Gov. Jimmy Carter in 1976, Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988, Vice President Al Gore in 2000, and Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

3. Further number-crunching reveals some rather ominous findings for campaigns of both parties:

-- For Republicans, the party's eventual nominee has always won either Iowa or New Hampshire or both. In other words, no Republican candidate in recent history has dropped both Iowa and New Hampshire and still won the party's nomination. So, if McCain wins New Hampshire as predicted, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani would have to make history to win the nomination.

-- For Democrats, a different rule holds: If the same candidate wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire, then that candidate has always become the party's nominee (examples: Kerry in 2004, Gore in 2000, Carter in 1980). That means that if Obama wins New Hampshire tonight, history would suggest that he will be the party's nominee. If Obama loses New Hampshire, his shot at the nomination falls sharply: Of the three election years when the Democratic winner of Iowa has lost New Hampshire (1984, 1988, 1992), only once has the candidate become the nominee (1984).

Of course, a number of caveats apply:

* Results in Iowa are often skewed by the presence of midwesterners on the ticket (examples: Dick Gephardt of Missouri in 1988, home-stater Tom Harkin in 1992). The same is true of New Hampshire and New Englanders (Tsongas was from Massachusetts, Muskie from Maine).

* Wacky things happen all the time. Tonight, for instance, Mike Huckabee is likely to make history by becoming the first Republican Iowa caucus winner to not place in the top two in New Hampshire. So it goes.

—Kent Garber