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It is not all about the US,,,,Russia has concerns about the Transcaucus... And Iranian influence in the stans... What is forgotten is that during the Russian Revolution and WWI there was concenrs about the proto Jihadist movement that is now in place. The formation of turke y out of the remnant of the ottoman empire put this concern... Attaturk did systemtaicly destroy both the jihadist and alot of minorities, thus deflecting the transcaucus push.. Allowing the absorbion of parts of the stans without a coherent muslim oppostion...
Strahphor is has its bias, but they do relflect a multipolar world where there are otehrr interest.
To be honest in the event that the US pulls out of AFPAC the winner will be the US. After all the young men stop dying.... the loser would be the Stans and the Russian sphere of influence...The bear did go in the 80's wasnt to spread marxiism but to try and stabilise the perifery of its empire....And there is spectre of China who are investing in a trans Kazahstan pipe line..
To be honest that would be the medium term play for the US.. It has no strategic function in AF PAC.. it can stabilise and continue the support of the Kazhasstan, but distract its rivals Russian and China forcing them to do the heavy lifting in terms of the containing the spread of the islamic jihad...
But all three would then play for Brazil for that source of energy...
But what do I know, I am not a yanki....
Russia's Concern in a Post-U.S. Afghanistan
Russian National Security Adviser Nikolai Patrushev, while on a visit to the Indian capital Monday, said there was no military solution to the situation in Afghanistan. Patrushev, who is the former long-time head of the Russian Federal Security Service and the second most influential intelligence official after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, explained that the problems of terrorism and drug trafficking in the southwest Asian nation would continue without some sort of negotiated settlement in the country that could allow for socio-economic development. Afghan forces on their own could not accomplish such tasks, and Russia is willing to provide the necessary assistance, the secretary of the Kremlin’s National Security Council said.
“Knowing that the Americans are unlikely to achieve some form of political resolution before they leave Afghanistan, the Russians are trying to step in and find with regional players some enduring strategy in the otherwise dysfunctional country.”
Patrushev’s remarks reflect Moscow’s growing concerns at the increasingly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, especially as the United States and its NATO allies approach the end game. The Americans have the choice of walking away from Afghanistan while it remains a threat, albeit one that is not so close to home. For the Russians, however, given their interests in Central Asia and the Caucuses, Afghanistan in a state of anarchy, or worse, dominated by the Taliban, represents a clear and present danger, due to terrorism, drugs and political, regional destabilization.
Knowing that the Americans are unlikely to achieve some form of political resolution before they leave Afghanistan, the Russians are trying to step in and find with regional players some enduring strategy in the otherwise dysfunctional country. India and Russia, along with Iran, share similar concerns, and have long been supportive of anti-Taliban forces. But each of these powers realizes that the Taliban are a reality and thus need to be contained through engagement.
Iran already has significant ties to the Afghan jihadist militia, cultivated over the years since the Taliban began their resurgence. The Russians also have their own connections, a legacy from their involvement in the 1980’s. India remains the weak link in this chain because of its rivalry with Pakistan and Taliban linkages to Islamabad, despite it having the most overt business relationship, and a recently announced training deal with Afghan security forces.
The Russians, who have been in communication with the Pakistanis, especially as U.S.-Pakistani relations have suffered, understand the need for working with Islamabad. This would explain Patrushev’s statement that the joint fight against terrorism could help normalize relations between India and Pakistan. “India and Pakistan have specific relations, and we do not see it as our role to try to change them. However, there is a threat which affects everyone, international terrorism, and there is an understanding by the sides that this needs to be resolved together.”
However, the India-Pakistan rivalry is not the only thing that Russia has to be concerned about vis-a-vis Afghanistan. U.S. influence on the Indians has created a disconnect between India and Iran, preventing India from being able to purchase crude from Tehran. Tightening U.S.-led measures against doing business with the Iranians has left the Indians without a means by which to pay for the crude.
In the past couple of days there have been reports that Saudi Arabia is willing to make up for the amount of oil that the Indians have not been getting from Iran due to American-led sanctions. It is not clear if India can use Saudi Arabia to substitute this shortfall, but it creates problems between India and Iran as Tehran is at loggerheads with both Washington and Riyadh.
As Russia gets more nervous about what will come from the aftermath of the U.S. pullout in Afghanistan, it will seek assistance to engineer some direction in the country. Ultimately, if the Russians are to come up with a way to deal with Afghanistan, then it must have reach a consensus with the key regional players, especially Pakistan and Iran — the two countries with the most influence in Afghanistan and with problems with India.
Strahphor is has its bias, but they do relflect a multipolar world where there are otehrr interest.
To be honest in the event that the US pulls out of AFPAC the winner will be the US. After all the young men stop dying.... the loser would be the Stans and the Russian sphere of influence...The bear did go in the 80's wasnt to spread marxiism but to try and stabilise the perifery of its empire....And there is spectre of China who are investing in a trans Kazahstan pipe line..
To be honest that would be the medium term play for the US.. It has no strategic function in AF PAC.. it can stabilise and continue the support of the Kazhasstan, but distract its rivals Russian and China forcing them to do the heavy lifting in terms of the containing the spread of the islamic jihad...
But all three would then play for Brazil for that source of energy...
But what do I know, I am not a yanki....
Russia's Concern in a Post-U.S. Afghanistan
Russian National Security Adviser Nikolai Patrushev, while on a visit to the Indian capital Monday, said there was no military solution to the situation in Afghanistan. Patrushev, who is the former long-time head of the Russian Federal Security Service and the second most influential intelligence official after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, explained that the problems of terrorism and drug trafficking in the southwest Asian nation would continue without some sort of negotiated settlement in the country that could allow for socio-economic development. Afghan forces on their own could not accomplish such tasks, and Russia is willing to provide the necessary assistance, the secretary of the Kremlin’s National Security Council said.
“Knowing that the Americans are unlikely to achieve some form of political resolution before they leave Afghanistan, the Russians are trying to step in and find with regional players some enduring strategy in the otherwise dysfunctional country.”
Patrushev’s remarks reflect Moscow’s growing concerns at the increasingly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, especially as the United States and its NATO allies approach the end game. The Americans have the choice of walking away from Afghanistan while it remains a threat, albeit one that is not so close to home. For the Russians, however, given their interests in Central Asia and the Caucuses, Afghanistan in a state of anarchy, or worse, dominated by the Taliban, represents a clear and present danger, due to terrorism, drugs and political, regional destabilization.
Knowing that the Americans are unlikely to achieve some form of political resolution before they leave Afghanistan, the Russians are trying to step in and find with regional players some enduring strategy in the otherwise dysfunctional country. India and Russia, along with Iran, share similar concerns, and have long been supportive of anti-Taliban forces. But each of these powers realizes that the Taliban are a reality and thus need to be contained through engagement.
Iran already has significant ties to the Afghan jihadist militia, cultivated over the years since the Taliban began their resurgence. The Russians also have their own connections, a legacy from their involvement in the 1980’s. India remains the weak link in this chain because of its rivalry with Pakistan and Taliban linkages to Islamabad, despite it having the most overt business relationship, and a recently announced training deal with Afghan security forces.
The Russians, who have been in communication with the Pakistanis, especially as U.S.-Pakistani relations have suffered, understand the need for working with Islamabad. This would explain Patrushev’s statement that the joint fight against terrorism could help normalize relations between India and Pakistan. “India and Pakistan have specific relations, and we do not see it as our role to try to change them. However, there is a threat which affects everyone, international terrorism, and there is an understanding by the sides that this needs to be resolved together.”
However, the India-Pakistan rivalry is not the only thing that Russia has to be concerned about vis-a-vis Afghanistan. U.S. influence on the Indians has created a disconnect between India and Iran, preventing India from being able to purchase crude from Tehran. Tightening U.S.-led measures against doing business with the Iranians has left the Indians without a means by which to pay for the crude.
In the past couple of days there have been reports that Saudi Arabia is willing to make up for the amount of oil that the Indians have not been getting from Iran due to American-led sanctions. It is not clear if India can use Saudi Arabia to substitute this shortfall, but it creates problems between India and Iran as Tehran is at loggerheads with both Washington and Riyadh.
As Russia gets more nervous about what will come from the aftermath of the U.S. pullout in Afghanistan, it will seek assistance to engineer some direction in the country. Ultimately, if the Russians are to come up with a way to deal with Afghanistan, then it must have reach a consensus with the key regional players, especially Pakistan and Iran — the two countries with the most influence in Afghanistan and with problems with India.