Coming Soon - Elections!

[wolmersboy]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

[ QUOTE ]
Skewed priorities?
published: Friday | September 1, 2006

The Editor, Sir:

Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller seems more concerned with clearing the name of our National Hero, Marcus Garvey, than with the fact that Marcus Garvey Drive floods when it rains. A telling anecdote that starkly demonstrates skewed priorities. The current Garvey affair reeks of a pandering to the Rasta vote. The Rasta is well known to harbour emotional and even spiritual sentiments towards Garvey.

Upon becoming Prime Minister, Mrs. Simpson Miller's first conquest was the Christian church. Now that the church has been conquered, it's forward march! Time to win over the emotions of the Rastafarian community, which had been somewhat snub-nosed in the Prime Minister's initial overture to Christians. Watch out! The Muslims might be next! It is a smart strategy.

A journalistic search is necessary into the quantum of the sums being made available to attorneys-at-law Stephen Vasciannie et al, for the purpose of clearing the Garvey name. And what is the possible source of funding? Could it possibly be coming from the Consolidated Fund? Whatever the sum, could these monies not be expended on fixing two potholes on Marcus Garvey Drive? Or how about providing lunch to two needy students of Marcus Garvey High?

I am, etc.,
MILTON WRAY
[email protected]

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow! If more people stand up and be counted like this gentleman, maybe there is some real hope for JA. Forward!

[Wardob]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

Criticize and or questioning ? No. Neither have I accept or reject it.
I was just presenting another side , the side that both parties rely on going into an election, that is their own internal poll.
Base on that of the JLP I say they should not be too worry, some bruise and scratches here and there but nothing , worth calling the Doctor.

What I question are the reason for not calling the election considering her popularity, her vast superiority over Bruce to lead in all fields and the prediction of her victory.
Since then I came up with my suspicion why:-
My first suspicion is she is not happy with the result of her internal poll, so party workers are sent back in the filed to sure up the votes
She remember full well that another leader of her party Hon Michael Manley who was even more popular than her, seems at first to have everyone in the Country eating out of his hands, these same pollster predict he would demolish and retire the most unpopular and hated politician in the Country, namely Seaga. We all know the result.
Or she remember that P.J. Patterson was so unpopular, they all say he was unelectable to the highest office in the land, Mr. Seaga would demolished him and end his political career. We all know the result , Mr. Paterson end his (Mr. Seaga) political career.
So she is taking nothing for granted although we all know nothing can go wrong as she was appointed by God to lead the Country, so as a good Christian she wait to hear from him when to call it.




Watch di-GREEN……………. Watch di- GREEN [img]/forums/images/graemlins/bannana_purple.gif[/img]

[remo]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Skewed priorities?
published: Friday | September 1, 2006

The Editor, Sir:

Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller seems more concerned with clearing the name of our National Hero, Marcus Garvey, than with the fact that Marcus Garvey Drive floods when it rains. A telling anecdote that starkly demonstrates skewed priorities. The current Garvey affair reeks of a pandering to the Rasta vote. The Rasta is well known to harbour emotional and even spiritual sentiments towards Garvey.

Upon becoming Prime Minister, Mrs. Simpson Miller's first conquest was the Christian church. Now that the church has been conquered, it's forward march! Time to win over the emotions of the Rastafarian community, which had been somewhat snub-nosed in the Prime Minister's initial overture to Christians. Watch out! The Muslims might be next! It is a smart strategy.

A journalistic search is necessary into the quantum of the sums being made available to attorneys-at-law Stephen Vasciannie et al, for the purpose of clearing the Garvey name. And what is the possible source of funding? Could it possibly be coming from the Consolidated Fund? Whatever the sum, could these monies not be expended on fixing two potholes on Marcus Garvey Drive? Or how about providing lunch to two needy students of Marcus Garvey High?

I am, etc.,
MILTON WRAY
[email protected]

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow! If more people stand up and be counted like this gentleman, maybe there is some real hope for JA. Forward!

[/ QUOTE ]

After reading this letter I am left wondering what the down side is for Portia in this scenario....As the author himself said it is a very smart strategy..Will it work?
only time will tell

[Blackstar*]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

<font color="blue">Wardob, it looks like you may have been on to something. [img]/forums/images/graemlins/70402-thinking.gif[/img]</font>
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Massive cut in PNP lead
Ruling party only 5% ahead of JLP

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Voter support for the ruling People's National Party (PNP) has plunged dramatically - by 12.3% - in the 10-month period since the November 2005 opinion survey, the latest Stone Polls are showing.

Despite having the more popular leader by far in Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, the PNP was only ahead of the Bruce Golding-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) by 4.7%, which puts the Opposition party within striking distance of an electoral victory, the survey suggests.



The polls were conducted during the first week of August 2006, using a representative sample of 1,496 eligible voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
When the margin of error is factored in, the PNP's lead is a statistically insignificant 1.7% among respondents who said they would vote in the next elections.

The party standings appeared to be a reversal in the polls after a week of survey results carried by the Observer, which showed Prime Minister Simpson Miller leading Bruce Golding in all but one area - public speaking - making her more popular than her own party.

But the real story seemed to be the huge plunge by the ruling party when the August 2006 polls are compared with the November 2005 polls. In November, the Stone Polls asked voting-age Jamaicans which party they would vote for in the next elections if Portia Simpson Miller was leading the PNP and Bruce Golding was leading the JLP.

A huge 42.4% said they would vote PNP, compared with 30.8% who said they would put their 'X' beside the JLP's bell.
In August, voters preferring the PNP dropped to 30.1%, or 12.3% less than in November 2005. However, the JLP's celebration would have been muted somewhat by the fact that it too had slipped - from 30.8% to 25.4% - even if not as sharply as the PNP.

Significantly, the August 2006 Stone Poll also found that of those who gave an opinion on which party was best to run the country, 32.2% said the PNP, against 29.5% who said the JLP, a statistical dead heat.

In its commentary on the most recent polls, the Stone Team said: "Despite criticisms of the Portia Simpson Miller regime, voters still appear to marginally favour a PNP government over a JLP. It was found that 32.2% felt that the PNP was the best party to run the country at the moment, as opposed to 29.5% who supported the JLP. When asked who they intended to vote for in the upcoming elections, 30.1% said the PNP, while 25.4% said the JLP.

"It should be noted that the PNP's advantage over the JLP appears to widen considerably among those classified as 'likely' or 'most likely' voters. 'Likely' voters are those who were enumerated and indicated that they were going to vote. 'Most likely' voters are persons who indicated that they intended to vote in the next elections, were enumerated and had voted in the 2002 general elections."

The Stone Team noted that about 81% of respondents said that they were enumerated, but only 62% said that they intended to vote in the next general elections.

"Interestingly, many of those who did not vote in the 2002 general elections intend to vote in the upcoming elections (40%). Only 10 per cent of those who voted in the 2002 general elections said that they do not intend to vote in the next elections.

"The 43.9 per cent no-response includes respondents who were 'undecided' or 'won't say' or indicated that they 'would not vote' in the next elections. Given the size of this 'no-response category, the outcome of the elections appears to be very much open," Stone said.

[Blackstar*]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

[ QUOTE ]
After reading this letter I am left wondering what the down side is for Portia in this scenario....As the author himself said it is a very smart strategy..Will it work?
only time will tell

[/ QUOTE ]
We shall see indeed. It seems the PM's actions benefit the PM, but not the PNP and, some would argue (like the letter writer above), not Jamaica.

[Blackstar*]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

<font color="blue">One long helluva column from Wignall today. I think it's too soon to start making any predictions. The press should be explaining the issues and party positions. As Wignall himself points out what would an un-schooled 54-year-old know about environmental issues? And I would add "unless those issues are explained to him or her".
-----------------------------------------------</font>

Elections this year will favour the JLP
Wignall's World
Mark Wignall
Sunday, September 03, 2006


All of this week, the airwaves will be bombarded by the results of the latest Stone Polls which today show the JLP within five percentage points (striking distance) of the ruling PNP.

In the PNP camp, only the most optimistic will have anything to shout about. The fact is, the Portia wave is ebbing and a most united, tightly organised JLP will be chomping at the bit as it awaits a national announcement from the prime minister.

If my advice is worth anything, I would suggest that the PM go the full distance to next year, in the hope that her stewardship will stimulate added interest in the PNP government and more likely voters will hop on board a PNP train which derailed sometime in mid-June this year.

In real time, the period from February 2006 to September 2006 has been only seven months. In political time, it seems to have occupied no more a period than the snap of a hypnotist's finger and then, in another breath, it takes on a surreal dimension, like melted clocks heading out to an illusion on a receding horizon without a starting point and only infinity to contend with as an end.

In February 2005, this writer had committed Portia Simpson Miller to a future history filled with accolades due to the new ground that she would have broken in restructuring socio-political arrangements in this country by bringing more of the dispossessed, black majority into economic wealth and social betterment.

While most of her colleagues in her own party decided that she was unfit, ill-prepared and did not have the level of competence needed to lead the PNP and the country, commentators like myself shot them down, citing jealousy, bad-mindedness and class bias.

Black mother icon or myth

<font color="grey">
Portia Simpson Miller acknowledges supporters on her arrival at People's
National Party headquarters on the night of February 25, 2006 the day
of the party's presidential election, which she won.</font>

In the general population, the line was plainly drawn. Successful black persons who had pulled themselves up through the rough and tumble of poor education, poorer parenting, dinner leftovers for breakfast and gunshots for dinner saw in Portia their own tentative, burdensome, pain-filled pasts and loved her for the haughty challenge.

Many hid their real concerns about her capabilities at such dizzying heights and instead backed her in an investment of faith.

In hindsight, many of them supported her and 'invested' in her based on their own needs to see someone looking like them directing affairs concerning them. In this ideal, many were the wishes and hopes expressed that she would succeed and distance herself from the political charlatans of the past.

Among the black intelligentsia, Portia as a leader of the PNP and prime minister of the country was not even a consideration. Some were plainly 'roast breadfruits' who spent many hours yearning for the economic trappings of the 'high browns' who directed the economic activities of this country which, in turn, gave them employment.

Many of them really had no use for black political leadership. Those who tolerated P J Patterson did so because, in their estimation, P J understood the class arrangements and played along with them, upsetting many who had no power, but pleasing the 'important' few who wielded awesome power for their small numbers.

The poor and the dispossessed had at last found their icon at whose feet they wished to worship. On that February 25 day when I saw the Portia faithful marching on to victory, I was convinced that Simpson Miller would be sufficiently supercharged to go on and become the best prime minister this country had ever seen.

The February event created the March 30 inauguration and March took us on into June and beyond. The prime minister, who I am told is not at her best when handling criticisms, was warned that there would be no honeymoon and no deals cut, that those who were nice to her would remain in some predictable mode. It now seems that that day of reckoning is upon the prime minister.

Portia's errors
In retrospect, it seems that a lot of what those of us who supported her feared would happen, has happened. Many of her critics seemed to have been right after all. The big blunders are there.

In her budget speech, she messed up. Missing a wonderful opportunity to address the broad structural social inadequacies in the society, she went off on the usual, trying her best to ape the political simians of the past. All that speech needed was about three specific policy issues addressed. Then she should have given us a presentation which would have lived on in us for an extended period beyond the nine days that is the norm in this country.

Team Portia was actively seeking to have the prime minister consecrated by the main religious leader in this country. The ceremony was to have been held at either the Stadium or the Arena. In plain language, a grand ceremony was to be held and at some stage the prime minister would be invited to kneel in front of the religious leader who would 'anoint' her and proclaim her 'consecrated'. As I understand it, the idea was summarily dismissed by the ecumenical community.

In matters which demanded the prime minister's immediate attention, such as the fiasco surrounding the development at Pear Tree Bottom, the tremors in industrial relations in the public sector, the cement crisis, the Whitehouse scandal, etc, the prime minister was long in coming, if indeed she did show up.

In her own party, her poor management skills made her the laughing stock of those who had merely tolerated her in the days when she was only a minister. As the factionalism grew, those who were plainly against her from the outset simply took away the party from her.

As the rift grew, so did the determination of each side to hold on to its position. One faction in the party even set out to ensure that come the next elections, their own electoral omissions would guarantee a PNP loss, all for the sake of 'saving the PNP from Portia'.

It was nothing more than 'good' party politics when both the Davies and the Portia sides told the media that they would work with each other no matter who won. It is now the biggest open secret that the finance minister wants out. Not because he is being forced out or being led delicately to the door, but because of fundamental disagreements on policy.

Many in key sectors of the country have been viewing the present political leadership as nothing more than a disaster. Most have lined up behind each other in an effort to 'look for another government'.

Most of the persons in the business community have no time for foolish games of class and gender biases. They are mostly into the business of producing goods and services and making money. The main viewpoint driving the present mood of the business community is one which sees the political leadership as incompetent and unprepared to deal with the reins of power.

Remembering that Eastern Westmoreland by-election
At the height of 'Portia-mania' the PNP called a by-election on June 7 in the seat left vacant by the then outgoing prime minister, P J Patterson. Eastern Westmoreland had been 'PNP territory' for longer than anyone would care to remember. In that by-election, the PNP threw its entire machinery behind a win, which it got, as expected.

A comparison with the 2002 numbers shows an interesting mix of voting fortunes. With 22 per cent less persons voting than in 2002, the PNP got 66 per cent to the JLP's 34 per cent. In the 130 polling stations in the four divisions across the constituency the PNP did worse in 112 compared to the JLP's 74.

The PNP did better in 15, while the JLP increased its 2002 count in 47 stations. The PNP scored the same in three stations, while the JLP got the same number of votes in nine as it got in 2002.

I have stated this because it is important for us to remember that all polls from 2005 leading up to Portia's victory in February were indicating a wipe-out for the JLP just as long as the PNP leader was Portia Simpson Miller. What the polls could not have factored in were the internal fallout in the PNP and Portia's dismal stewardship between March and now.

May 2006 Stone Polls vs Bill Johnson's poll
In my research I have earmarked the middle of June as the beginning of the significant dip in support for the Simpson Miller-led PNP. In May, a privately commissioned poll was conducted by the Stone Team which showed the PNP leading the JLP by nine per cent.

In July, PNP pollster Bill Johnson, who also conducts polls for The Gleaner, was showing the PNP 12 per cent clear of the JLP. While being interviewed by the wily ace journalist Cliff Hughes, Johnson was asked by Hughes if he would care to give a seat count based on the 12-point difference.

'Too close to call,' was the response. Many political watchers almost jumped out of their seats at that admission by the pollster. I sympathise with the pollster for the simple reason that since about 1999 something has been taking place among the electorate which has had the effect of suppressing JLP support in polls. It existed in the run-up to the 2002 elections and it is my belief that it is happening right now.

In other words, the JLP's five per cent behind the PNP could, by that reasoning, actually win an election called now.
It probably has something to do with the long period that the PNP has been in power, (1989 to 2006), its increase of its diehard base support relative to the JLP's over this period and the fact that many persons are more familiar with "PNP" than "JLP".

Leader-strong or structure-strong
At Patterson's ascendancy to the prime ministership in 1992 and his stewardship in the years during his numerous wins, the PNP moved from leader-strong (in the days of Michael Manley) to structure-strong. Throughout those years, Patterson never came out on top as the person most preferred in the PNP. It was always Portia Simpson.

Patterson was booed at the National Stadium, filled to capacity, in the latter part of 1997. Inside the stadium that day were 30,000 persons from all the social classes. Less than four months later, his party won the 1997 general elections.

The specific advantage of this to the PNP is that where Patterson was seen as a bright but 'ordinary' leader who would never move anyone outside of diehard PNP circles, when he failed to stir the masses, the organisational machinery inside the PNP, which included Peter Phillips, Paul Robertson, Maxine Henry-Wilson and workers close to the secretariat, could always be counted on to snatch away victory from the JLP, which was still in the mode of a leader-strong party (Seaga). Once Seaga opened his mouth and put both feet in, he pulled the whole party down with him.

The make-up of the JLP now is the very opposite of the Seaga times. Golding has not had the time to impress the JLP and the electorate with the strength of his personality. Even in his own constituency he is only about 60 per cent loved in comparison to the 95 per cent love West Kingston had for Seaga.

That, however, ought not to confound the JLP, because in the time that the leader-strong mode was on the downswing, the JLP was transformed into a structure-strong party with an organisational machinery which would put the PNP's ramshackle fish shop to shame.

With a charismatic Portia at the helm, the PNP has had its chance to become both leader-strong and structure-strong. As it is now, the leadership has been unable to define its role and chart a coherent direction for the PNP. Add to that the fact that groups antagonistic to each other have sprung up, the PNP conference this year may end up publicly spilling a lot of the venom which exists inside that party whose structure seems to be falling apart under the new, tentative leadership.

August Stone Polls
The prime minister's high ratings in the Stone Polls relative to that of Bruce Golding has been most worrying to a newly energised JLP which somehow cannot get it through its head that there are matters of trust still dogging the JLP leader. The real problem which drives that is Golding's 1995 principled decision to leave the JLP and form his own party, the NDM.

We must remember that Golding had 'most favoured person' status in the JLP before he made that move. On his return to the JLP in 2002, most persons in the electorate were evenly divided on seeing Golding as saviour of the JLP on one hand, while on the other, he was viewed as a traitor.

In the latest Stone Polls, the prime minister's ratings on various policy issues and positions have come out way ahead of Golding's. No surprise on that. One witty PNP MP said to me on Thursday that, "The polls make her look good. It obviously pleases us, but will we ever be made to pay for those high ratings."

For sure there will be some who will be finding some disconnectedness between those high ratings and the relatively close standings of the PNP and JLP. This does not surprise me, and I am sure that the Stone Polls analysts will provide the necessary information for the benefit of the reading public.

As I said in my Thursday column, asking respondents 'difficult' questions will always elicit answers like those reflected in the latest poll findings. First, once a question is 'too big' and the answers require the respondents to make a choice between two well known names, the more uneducated the respondent, the more likely he is to go for the name which he loves.

If, for example, a voter aged 54, who cannot read, write or divide one by five should be asked "When you look at Portia Simpson Miller and Bruce Golding, who do you believe would do the better job of saving Jamaica from the ravages of global warming?" the respondent says in his mind, 'I have no idea wha dis girl a ask mi'.

But he figures that Portia is 'a good person' so it must be Portia, so he answers, "Poosha".
If the high ratings of the prime minister are no longer being transformed into high voting support for the PNP, does it mean that the polls are wrong? No, it does not.

JLP strength in Portland
As an example, I just recently conducted two constituency polls in Eastern Portland and Western Portland on behalf of the JLP. The party has given me the authorisation to divulge the main findings. Both seats have been 'owned' by the PNP for what seems like forever.

The polls show very weak representation by the PNP MPs Donald Rhodd and the outgoing Errol Ennis. When asked to rate the performance of the prime minister, both Eastern Portland and West Portland gave the prime minister high ratings.

The JLP representative in Eastern Portland is Dennis Wright and in Western Portland, Daryl Vaz.
East Portland - 'good' ratings Portia: 79 per cent, 'poor' ratings 11 per cent
East Portland - 'good' ratings Golding: 58 per cent, 'poor' ratings 23 per cent
West Portland - 'good' ratings Portia: 58 per cent, 'poor' ratings 25 per cent
West Portland - 'good' ratings Golding: 52 per cent, 'poor' ratings 24 per cent

One would have thought that with those favourable ratings of the prime minister, it would reflect in the PNP's strength in the parish. But what is the reality?

With a likely turnout of 54 per cent in the next elections, East Portland is JLP 52 per cent, PNP 48 per cent.

With a likely turnout of 67 per cent in the next elections, West Portland is JLP 54 per cent, PNP 46 per cent.

It is my belief that what is happening in Portland can be taken as a template or a reflection of the state of the constituencies islandwide. Where the PNP representation is weak, and the JLP has strong candidates who are working among the people, it is usually reflected in the party standings, NOTWITHSTANDING the high ratings given to the prime minister's performance.

As I see it now, the JLP's strength is on the increase, and where that party has the superior organisation and resources to deal with an election campaign, I expect the JLP to be ahead in national polls by October/November.

If the PNP wants to take this lying down, then I suppose that also is an option.

[Blackstar*]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

Here's Eddie's view - he's much more prudent than Wignall...and not to mention more concise!
He does highlight that J'cans vote with their heart, so any party that wants to win, will have to pull those heart strings.
---------------------------------------------------
Polls reflect distorted reasoning
published: Sunday | September 3, 2006

Edward Seaga, Contributor

I have avoided commentaries of a political nature in the past in order to ensure that I do not cast any political shadows. But there are some observations that I should make for greater clarification on at least two matters which are causing a lot of eyebrows to be raised and heads to be scratched.

A new team is at work in the Stone Polls. Their current survey shows some results that, to many, are very puzzling. The size of margins between responses which favour the Prime Minister over the Leader of the Opposition are unexpectedly large and in some unexpected areas.

What is being overlooked in understanding these large margins is that the political climate has changed significantly in the last six months. Political opinions are now being dominated by an image factor which is so strong that it is distorting reason. Hence, answers to questions are not necessarily going to be rational. They will reflect a heavy emotional content.

Sinking the ship

This has happened before, during the 1970s. In the greater part of that decade voting was mostly an emotional exercise which was so overwhelming that the electorate had substantially become sailors who were cheering while the captain was sinking the ship.

It took six years of the Michael Manley regime in that period for the electorate to throw off emotions and get hold of their senses.

The toughest fight in politics is trying to overcome a negative image or fight a positive one. Images are amorphous. They are not susceptible to reason. Generally, the best tactic is to wait until they drift away. But sometimes they don't. They get firmer and stronger until they become a part of legend.

Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller has been enveloped in an image of devotion to the well-being of the people which has attracted strong emotional attachments to her.

In such circumstances, don't expect fully rational answers from those who are members of her huge fan club. The answers are going to be mainly emotional. The responses are going to reflect positive responses out of love whether or not the position is, in reality, quite different. This, in colloquial language is like saying, "is just so me like her and me nah say nutting but good 'bout her."

This is a wonderful position for any politician to be in. It's a win-win situation. But it is very difficult to sustain unless there is a sufficient flow of feel-good and beneficial rewards.

Gender factor

Analysis of the make-up of this electoral fan club is not difficult. The present poll has identified the gender factor as one of the main contributors. Women are giving the Prime Minister heavy support not only because they are of the same gender and 'is woman time now', but because women are the burden bearers of the society and any leader with a strong image of looking after the people is going to draw substantial support from women, especially if the image includes a record of past performance. The credibility of expectations of future performance is always strengthened by past performance.

But there is one area in this poli-tical phenomenon of the magnetic pull of a strong image which has not been incorporated into the polls: It is determination of the extent of the pull across political boundaries.

This works both ways because where there is strong aversion to the Prime Minister from her own supporters because her image does not fit their image of what her image should be, there will be a rejection factor.

Two tides

In such circumstances, there will be two tides running in opposite directions: People's National Party (PNP) supporters switching to Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), and JLP supporters switching to PNP; 'power' people switching to 'shower', and 'shower' people changing to 'power'. This is a 'show-pow' effect.

There is no doubt that this is happening. The question is in which direction is the flow stronger?

Subject to the result of any poll analysis, it would be reasonable to conclude that in the lower socio-economic level of the electorate there is some shift in support from 'shower' to 'power', while in the middle and upper levels some are moving in the opposite direction - 'power' to 'shower' (or to don't know).

The relative strengths of these two flows of 'show-pow' could be the missing link in explaining the margins of difference in the strong showing of Portia Simpson Miller over her opponent, Bruce Golding.

This would mean additional support for Portia in poor urban and rural areas and stronger support for Bruce in the urban middle-class residential areas.

Shift

This has happened before, and when it did in the 1970s, I predicted to my colleagues that the JLP would gain a number of constituencies in upper St. Andrew and urban parish capitals while the PNP would be strengthened in the inner city.

This is exactly what happened. All the constituencies in northern St. Andrew swung to the JLP. Many poorer areas swung to the PNP. The difference now, however, is athat the shift has already occurred in the middle-class area. There are no new constituencies to win as the JLP already holds all these seats. The only impact would be further strengthening. On the other hand, significant shifts in poorer constituencies could lead to a gain in seats for the PNP.

The large differences between party leaders are not necessarily reflective of party positions. The parties could be close in their polls although there is a wide gap between the leaders. If this happens, it will mean that either the JLP is performing better than its leader or the PNP is not performing as well as its president.

With surprisingly high margins of difference showing up in the polls, it is most important to know the true reasons so that the parties can create the appropriate strategies for their campaigns. Polling the 'show-pow' factor could undoubtedly make everybody wiser.

Edward Seaga is a former Prime Minister. He is now a Distinguished Fellow at the University of the West Indies. Email: [email protected].

[evanovitch]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

Madam PM firmly in charge
published: Sunday | September 3, 2006


Dawn Ritch, Contributor

At the risk of being deeply unfashionable among my colleagues, I have no second thoughts whatsoever about the leadership of Madam Prime Minister.

The only reservation I've ever had in nearly 20 years, was that she is a member of the People's National Party (PNP). And I dispensed with that ages ago. She has chosen the PNP, and now the PNP has chosen her.

There's no point crying over spilt milk, regretting that she's not a Labourite. But unfortunately, every administration run by the comrades has trashed and beggared the island. Nevertheless, the people keep voting them in for longer periods of government than the Jamaica Labour Party, and the PNP makes a greater mess of Jamaica every time they're elected to office. All this while promising to govern in our names, and in our interest.

Loss of hope

In sad, philosophical tones, many Jamaicans are now asking each other if it can get any worse, and whether or not there's hope for the country in our lifetime. This is indicative of a loss of hope. Jamaicans have become so cynical that they're afraid to look, much less believe what they see.

It is noteworthy that the JLP under the leadership of 'Flip-Flop' Bruce Golding has failed to make a connection with the Jamaican people, even in the depths of this despair.

That party had a well-funded islandwide tour promising to roll back the road toll, pay the teachers, nurses and policemen more. This was the result no doubt of professional public relations advice from abroad to find resonance with the Jamaican people.

Not a soul took any notice. The JLP is way back in the opinion polls. The PNP is ahead of them, despite being the cause of our economic and social decline.

Madame Prime Minister's personal poll numbers are way ahead of 'Flip-Flop's', and everything else - everything else, except the business class, the media, the commentators and the so-called intelligentsia. The élite of the country has recoiled in horror, and now trembles fearfully for the status quo.

Portia defied the status quo of her own party, by becoming its president. Traditionally the island's élite has only accepted working-class leadership when it is provided by the JLP. Had Portia come up through the ranks of the JLP, no one would dare be so casually rude to her today, much less question her capacity for leadership.

Nobody would be trying to tell her what to do, except in the most respectful tones. And the media would be fawning all over her.

Had Mrs. Simpson Miller been leader of the JLP in 1992, Patterson would have been flung out to pasture. The JLP would have been in power since then, the country could have been saved its distress, and Babsy Grange would be Minister of Foreign Affairs, charming the country's way to the best international deals and helping Portia create prosperity.

Let the record show, as it must, that murder is down by 25 per cent and the country's GDP grew 2.8 per cent from April to June in 2006.

Madam Prime Minister was firmly in the saddle by then, having won the presidency of the PNP on February 25.

This growth is despite a downturn in construction of 3.5 per cent over the same period because of the cement crisis.

Performance in office

This means that there is a tremendous amount of growth nascent in Jamaica that will continue to exhale under her leadership and guidance. Despite being a PNP, therefore, she has been the catalyst for a surge of economic activity not seen in Jamaica in 40 years. Nor is it one fueled by construction as was the earlier period. This growth is essentially broad-based.

Outside of the Government's wage bill, construction is the next biggest and the most important sector. It keeps every person, every hardware store, every grocery shop prosperous and busy. To have managed growth without construction is a death-defying act, and must be credited to the new administration. The previous one never provided such a spectacle in all their years of office. The recent moderation in the surge in oil prices also augers well for the future.

Madame Prime Minister's borrowings so far have been country to country, at concessionary interest rates, rather than on the expensive international capital market.

At the risk of being deeply unfashionable among the PNP, therefore, I must point out that her performance thus far in office has been that of a Labourite, and not a comrade.

All knowledgeable Labourites knew she would perform all along. This is why they never tired of trying to get her to cross the floor to the JLP, with the promise of its leadership.

But she put up with all the indignities heaped on her by the hierarchy of her own party, in order to one day become its president. Even greater indignities are now being heaped privately and publicly upon her, although she is prime minister.

A regal prime minister thrown up by the working classes of the JLP would have been familiar to the élite and therefore both believable and acceptable.

Somebody like that in the PNP it is thought, must be a D.K. Duncan in sheep's clothing, red in both tooth and claw. Had Portia been leader of the JLP, no one could harbour any such suspicions about her.

For 20 years, the élite and the intelligentsia paid not the slightest attention to Portia, except to dismiss her derisively. Instead of feeling a little embarrassed about that and somewhat humbled by the experience, they now demand that she dance attendance upon them.

Were she to jump every time they called, she'd have no time left to govern. This approach may offend them, but it has already produced national economic growth. Most of these members of the élite and the intelligentsia were in constant and daily dialogue with the previous administration. They never managed to produce an iota of growth.

Madame Prime Minister has said she would prefer to work, rather than talk. Obviously she prefers to do the right thing, rather than watch opinion polls. Remain calm, rather than fly off the handle. Make her own judgments, instead of doing as she is told by her supporters. The country has not seen such representation as this since the days of Alexander Bustamante. Long may she continue!

I have no hesitation supporting someone who performs as she does at home, and who gets the standing ovations that she does when she speaks before her peers abroad.

Now if Mrs. Simpson Miller can lower the gas bill and the light bill at home, keep us all busy with gainful work, and continue assiduously to lower the crime rate, Jamaica would be restored to its former glory overnight.

[Blackstar*]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

Such contrasting opinions. It makes you wonder if all these people live in the same country. [img]/forums/images/graemlins/70402-thinking.gif[/img]

[jamaica_dreamin]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

I admit that I just skimmed this thread [img]/forums/images/graemlins/70392-silly.gif[/img]
Is there a date for elections?

[Blackstar*]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

Date not set yet; see December too late and JLP starts campaign.

Plus I heard from another source that the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) is currently running newspaper ads for volunteer election workers.

[wolmersboy]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

[ QUOTE ]
Such contrasting opinions. It makes you wonder if all these people live in the same country. [img]/forums/images/graemlins/70402-thinking.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I said the same thing. Still in shock--Dawn Ritch wrote that last piece?!?!?!? Will wonders never cease! Maybe, just maybe there is hope....

[evanovitch]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

[ QUOTE ]
Such contrasting opinions. It makes you wonder if all these people live in the same country. [img]/forums/images/graemlins/70402-thinking.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

the thought came to me that wen people see an article like this written by Dawn, how much more will they vote for Portia and not the party....i take heart from wat Dawn reports...i.e. Portia's putting the country first...my concern is, like Michael, she will eventually have to fight from within... praying for her for real...maybe time for a change can finally be a reality

[Tuff Gong]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

[ QUOTE ]
Madam PM firmly in charge
published: Sunday | September 3, 2006


Dawn Ritch, Contributor

At the risk of being deeply unfashionable among my colleagues, I have no second thoughts whatsoever about the leadership of Madam Prime Minister.

The only reservation I've ever had in nearly 20 years, was that she is a member of the People's National Party (PNP). And I dispensed with that ages ago. She has chosen the PNP, and now the PNP has chosen her. .....


.....All knowledgeable Labourites knew she would perform all along. This is why they never tired of trying to get her to cross the floor to the JLP, with the promise of its leadership.

But she put up with all the indignities heaped on her by the hierarchy of her own party, in order to one day become its president. Even greater indignities are now being heaped privately and publicly upon her, although she is prime minister.

A regal prime minister thrown up by the working classes of the JLP would have been familiar to the élite and therefore both believable and acceptable.

Somebody like that in the PNP it is thought, must be a D.K. Duncan in sheep's clothing, red in both tooth and claw. Had Portia been leader of the JLP, no one could harbour any such suspicions about her.

For 20 years, the élite and the intelligentsia paid not the slightest attention to Portia, except to dismiss her derisively. Instead of feeling a little embarrassed about that and somewhat humbled by the experience, they now demand that she dance attendance upon them.

Were she to jump every time they called, she'd have no time left to govern. This approach may offend them, but it has already produced national economic growth. Most of these members of the élite and the intelligentsia were in constant and daily dialogue with the previous administration. They never managed to produce an iota of growth.

Madame Prime Minister has said she would prefer to work, rather than talk. Obviously she prefers to do the right thing, rather than watch opinion polls. Remain calm, rather than fly off the handle. Make her own judgments, instead of doing as she is told by her supporters. The country has not seen such representation as this since the days of Alexander Bustamante. Long may she continue!


[/ QUOTE ]

Drawn Rich is all over herself. She knows she is one of the last high profile media practitioners, not of the party, who gleefully mounted the bandwagon and now have been privately and publicly saying...What have we wrought?

I called it last week and see now she has produced her own dagger to publicly and untidily knife herself.
She has no remade the Skettel Simpleton into a JLP Animal, the better to swallow the bitter pill of the failure.

[Blackstar*]

Re: Coming Soon - Elections!

THE MONDAY INTERVIEW Part I: Bruce Golding's new agenda
published: Monday | September 4, 2006


In our lead story, we carried a story in which Opposition Leader Bruce Golding set out his agenda for the first hundred days of a new Jamaica Labour Party administration.

In this feature, we present excerpts from Mr. Golding's extensive interview with Earl Moxam.

EM: Mr. Golding, at this stage in the election cycle, wouldn't you want the JLP to be better positioned against the governing People's National Party?

BG: No, I think that we are well positioned. We have been working to a programme that involves putting in place the organisation in the constituencies with special emphasis on those constituencies where the organisation was less than what we wanted it to be. We are very well positioned. We know which seats we expect to win and we are determined to bring those home.

EM: So, if you were to do a seat-by-seat breakdown, would you say that you are, at this time, poised to win the next election?

BG: Oh, yes! We are ahead! What we're working on now is to try and increase that seat count. But we have a clear margin at this time. There are still some marginal seats that we want to tighten up the organsiation in and interestingly, there are one or two seats that we wouldn't normally be targeting but, based on the work that we have been doing in those seats, and based on the work we have been doing in those constituencies, and based on the readings we've been getting, we are going to add them to the target list.

EM: That would seem to be counter-intuitive against the background of poll findings and suggestions, some of them not particularly flattering to you, as leader of the JLP. How would you respond to that?

BG: You believe polls? In the last election a poll came out two days before the election that said we were nine points behind. What the results show? Fifty-two: Forty-eight. We're focused; we have a job of work to do. We have set out targets and we are working towards those targets.

EM: But surely, it must be somewhat disheartening for your candidates and supporters if at a particular point in time, even if you believe as you do, that they would like to see their own perceptions being reflected in the national polls?

BG: You evidently, Earl, have not been listening to the people on the ground. I've heard a couple of responses on the radio; people have spoken to us. I don't think the people are impressed with it either. We are interested in just one poll - election-day poll, when the people actually go out and vote. The Eastern Westmoreland by-election was significant. Significant! Because if there was an election that ought to have reflected this hype and excitement, it wasn't there. It's the lowest turnout of any contested by-election except for one in South St. Catherine some years ago. The fact is that what is happening is that if you leave the Corporate Area and stay off the front page of the newspapers and get out there into the country parts, you will find that there are persons who live in communities that have been cut off since Hurricane Ivan (September 2004) and it's almost as if they have fallen off the map of Jamaica! Do you think those people find any hope in this government? Do you think those people consider that the Prime Minister is so brand new that they can hope that now that she is Prime Minister something will be done? Many of these roads are local government roads for which she had ministerial responsibility.

When we talk about rural development, we are not just mouthing argument. I'm prepared to commit 2.5 per cent of the national budget to fund rural development through the Constituency Development Fund. It's an issue that some people in the media have criticised but I'm so firm about it that it's not funny. Because I don't know how you can ask people to have faith. Not in a Government, but in a system, to invest that faith and having done that, they are simply taken off the agenda altogether!

EM: How do you guarantee full accountability and efficiency of the deployment and use of those funds?

BG: These are not funds that are going to be available to Members of Parliament. Members of Parliament are going to be required to submit development plans for their constituencies. Those development plans will not belong to the MPs alone; they're going to have to be developed through a consultative committee in each constituency. That must involve his opponent; must involve civic groups in the constituency. The whole process of consultation and the submission and implementation of the project must be carried out, not by the Member of Parliament, but by the relevant government agencies, whether it is the Works Agency, Rural Electrification, whatever, but it is going to be monitored by the Political Ombudsman to ensure that it is not being 'partisanly' manipulated. In addition to that, a special unit is going to be set up within the Auditor-General's department to ensure that, unlike the normal audit that the Auditor-General does - sample audits - in this case, this special unit is going to be required to audit every single penny; a 100 per cent audit, to ensure that the funds are properly spent and that we get value for it and to ensure that the projects that are implemented are in keeping with what was submitted and what was approved by Parliament.

EM: Based on what you are saying in respect of constituency development, it would seem that the call for the establishment of the office of the Member of Parliament, not a party office but a constituency office for the MP, is all the more important.

BG: Clear commitment! You can take that as a clear commitment from us. Interestingly, that was a proposal that I put forward from the 1970s and every now and then it has been mooted. It has never really been done. The Public Health Inspector has an office, because he is supposed to serve the public. The Mayor has his parlour; he's serving the public. The Superintendent of Police has an office. The Member of Parliament is the only one who doesn't! Do you know what is provided to a Member of Parliament now to run an office? Twenty-five thousand dollars a month! You can't pay a secretary with that! And that's part of the difficulty that Members of Parliament face.