Major Hurricane to be - Tomas

[neutral]

Re: Major Hurricane to be - Tomas

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Dr.Dudd</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Nonsense is what ignorant label their opinions when the can't figure a theory.

Let me write it louder.

Come closer do That you can hear.

Intelligent people Do not try to stop mother nature.
They use engineering to manage the effect of mother nature.

One of those engineering feats is called bridges.
another is called resoviors.
Roads,that can withstand the annual weather unslaught.
That us what you take for granted where you live.
Mother nature is no more harsh in Jamaica than it is where you live.
It is just that they have people who font think like you do.
They manage it's effect do That you can enjoy your heated and airconditioned comfortable sorroundings.
although You still believe that mother nature doesn't affect where you live.
It only ply it's wrath on places like Jamaica. </div></div>

So what you saying then....?

[Cultcha]

Re: Major Hurricane to be - Tomas

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Wahalla</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Guys there is going to be death in Haiti in the next 72 hours.. it wont be pretty.... As petty as this seems it would be better that it continued west as Jamaica is better prepared than Haiti at the moment.... </div></div>

Agreed!
Given a choice between the two I hope Jamaica take this bullet and it leave poor Hati alone!

[Leddih]

Uncertainty

WTNT41 KNHC 021452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA. ...
<span style="font-weight: bold">
<span style="text-decoration: underline">THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE FUTURE POSITION</span> OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. <span style="text-decoration: underline">THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE</span> DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS. </span>

[Bandana]

Re: Major Hurricane to be - Tomas

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Kotch_Foot_Milo</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Wahalla</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Guys there is going to be death in Haiti in the next 72 hours.. it wont be pretty.... As petty as this seems it would be better that it continued west as Jamaica is better prepared than Haiti at the moment.... </div></div>

Agreed!
Given a choice between the two I hope Jamaica take this bullet and it leave poor Hati alone! </div></div>

[Bandana]

Re: Uncertainty

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Leddih</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
<span style="font-weight: bold">
<span style="text-decoration: underline">THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE</span> DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS. </span>

</div></div>

what does this mean Leddih??

[JamBrit]

Re: Major Hurricane to be - Tomas



<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Quote:</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
So what you saying then....? </div></div>

[JamBrit]

Re: Major Hurricane to be - Tomas

For real....damn.....

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Wahalla</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Guys there is going to be death in Haiti in the next 72 hours.. it wont be pretty.... As petty as this seems it would be better that it continued west as Jamaica is better prepared than Haiti at the moment.... </div></div>

[Dr.Dudd]

Re: Uncertainty

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mrs_Bandanna</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Leddih</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
<span style="font-weight: bold">
<span style="text-decoration: underline">THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE</span> DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS. </span>

</div></div>

what does this mean Leddih?? </div></div>those are the acronyms of different international meterological agencies That create their individual forecast.
Each of them comes up with different projection as to the future movement of the storm.
Yes there are Even amatuers like me usually try to Do my own forcast base on the raw data too.

[Bandana]

Re: Uncertainty

Thanks Doc,

this link is interesting...

on the top right, you can turn the forecast models on and see all the different projections

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/tropical-storm-tomas-2010

Why do they think it will make such a big turn

[Bandana]

Re: Uncertainty

All I can think about is my family

I don't know how ya'll have gone through this year after year with your loved ones being in JA.

Last year I was spared this anxiety as there were no hurricanes that threatened Jamaica.

As much as I agree that Hati would be far worse off, I can't bring myself to hope it hits Jamaica instead.

[Jazz]

Re: Uncertainty

Bandanna - you and I are on the same wavelength - I truly feel it for the people there but mi cyaan wish that it lick Jamaica an lef Haiti - not with mi modda an fadda siddung right inna de path...

I don;t think anyone here is so unselfish that dem woulda say - yes lick an mash up my family an lef dem wans ova deh so... sorry can;t dweet.

Maybe dem people weh ah say dat nuh have no family lef dung deh

My wish would be that it dodge them both... and if ti does hit that lives won;t be lost.

[Ja. Jewel]

Re: Uncertainty

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mrs_Bandanna</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Thanks Doc,

this link is interesting...

on the top right, you can turn the forecast models on and see all the different projections

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/tropical-storm-tomas-2010

Why do they think it will make such a big turn </div></div>

I'm not very knowledgeble about weather, but do know that wind shear &amp; other factors cause a storm to veer &amp; change it's path. Here is a link to a very interesting site where amatuer &quot;weather persons&quot; discuss the changing patterns of a storm &amp; reasons why. It is a bit too technical for my understanding, but I did pick up some info. as far as reasons for the storm to turn. You may be especially interested in this, Doc! Check it out! http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic....a&amp;start=820

[JamBrit]

Re: Uncertainty

Wouldn't want any of my family in Jamaica to be severely impacted by the storm either but I know they are living under much stronger foundations....Considering the current conditions in Haiti and those still living in make-shift homes/tents/the sick, etc....I dread to think the outcome this storm may have on a poor nation that has already suffered complete devastation...

I agree...the ultimate wish is for the hurricane to dodge them both or anywhere else for that matter.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Jazz</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Bandanna - you and I are on the same wavelength - I truly feel it for the people there but mi cyaan wish that it lick Jamaica an lef Haiti - not with mi modda an fadda siddung right inna de path...

I don;t think anyone here is so unselfish that dem woulda say - yes lick an mash up my family an lef dem wans ova deh so... sorry can;t dweet.

Maybe dem people weh ah say dat nuh have no family lef dung deh

My wish would be that it dodge them both... and if ti does hit that lives won;t be lost.

</div></div>

[Ja. Jewel]

Re: Uncertainty

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mrs_Bandanna</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Thanks Doc,

this link is interesting...

on the top right, you can turn the forecast models on and see all the different projections

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/tropical-storm-tomas-2010

Why do they think it will make such a big turn </div></div>

Bway, one of those projections look like it's going right through Duncan's Bay!

I would tend to go with the MAJORITY of the projected storm paths, most of which say the storm will veer abruptly on Wed. or Thurs. and take a noth-easterly path, but ANYTHING can happen!....it is Jah will that shall prevail.

This is the last thing the Haitian people need to contend with! My prayers are with them!

[Dr.Dudd]

Re: Uncertainty

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Mrs_Bandanna</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Thanks Doc,

this link is interesting...

on the top right, you can turn the forecast models on and see all the different projections

http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/tropical-storm-tomas-2010

Why do they think it will make such a big turn </div></div>
There is a large upper level high that I'd actually blocking it's westward movement.
That is the reason Why it has slowed and was disorganized for s period.
The upper level high sheared off tgr top And seperated the wind from it's Moisture for a while.
Anyway the surface temperature Was high enough to regenerate it.

So it is trying to go west but will nit be able to pass That upper level trough.
It acts like a large boulder in the path of weather systems.
if you fine a map of the wind patterns like the airline industry uses You should understand it better.