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This is quite a good article on where Obama sits in his hopes for another term.
If you do read the article, take the time to read the reply which follows the article; very good commentary in itself .
Obama, Blacks And Latinos
By Clarence Lusane
Saturday, April 30, 2011
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The White House must draw the right conclusions from recent dismal polls.
President Obama’s popularity is at its lowest point since taking office. A Gallup poll has him at a 41 percent approval rating. Although other polls have him closer to 45 percent, none is encouraging.
The polls demonstrate that much of the disapproval is coming from segments of the voters who will not support Obama under any circumstances. The voters who are feeling no love for Obama are older, less educated, higher income, more religious — and more white. Among whites, he has only a 39 percent approval rating.
There may not be much Obama can do about this constituency.
What the Obama team really needs to worry about — ignored by most analysts — is the drop in support from black and Latino voters. Although his support among blacks is still in the stratosphere, and although it is a bit above 50 percent among Latinos, the trends are all in the wrong direction.
In January 2010, he had a 92 percent approval rating from blacks; now it’s 85 percent. Back then, Latinos gave him a 65 percent approval rating; now it’s 54 percent. Even more ominous, in January 2009, Latinos gave Obama a 73 percent approval rating.
Given the configuration of Obama’s 2008 win, he absolutely must have every black and Latino vote he can garner. He will not only need over 90 percent of the black vote and perhaps 70 percent of the Latino vote; he will also need an extremely high turnout from both.
Weakening black support is being driven by a number of factors, some practical, others more philosophical. At over 15 percent, black unemployment is nearly twice that of whites and Asians, and it is not falling the way it is for these other groups.
The recession is having a disproportionately negative impact on people of color. As a new report by the Center for Social Inclusion notes, referring to blacks and Latinos, “The recession is not over — it is just hitting its stride.”
Lack of an immigration policy, failure to pass the DREAM Act and sky high deportations have moved some Latinos away from the administration, though it is hard to imagine that the anti-immigrant Republicans will end up receiving strong support from them.
At a more general level, there is a palatable frustration that the Obama administration has run away from race issues. The persistent disparities that exist regarding access to health care and quality education, and the ongoing discrimination within our criminal justice system, gnaw at blacks and Latinos.
Obama has refused to embrace any race-specific policies to address these inequities, even though only a sharp focus on these issues will begin to resolve them.
As a result, Obama’s appeal is perceived by a growing number of blacks as largely symbolic. And his main argument seems to be, “I’m better than the Republicans.”
That may not enough to inspire the turnout he needs from blacks and Latinos.
Clarence Lusane, Ph.D., is the program director/associate professor of comparative and regional studies in the School of International Service at American University. He is author of many books, including The Black History of the White House, published earlier in the Open Media Series by City Lights Books, www.citylights.com. He can be reached at [email protected].
Comment On This Commentary See All Comments (1)
from: "Where Obamaism Seems to be Going"
By Kershner, Harry at Apr 29, 2011 22:28 PM
BEFORE Obama's election, Adolph Reed, Jr., warned:
"And there's no reason, other than the will to believe, to expect that Obama would be any better [than McCain], and it's entirely likely that in some ways - including those bearing on racial justice - he'll be worse, again by moving the boundaries of thinkable liberalism that much farther to the right. There is nothing in his record, much less his recent courting of some of the worst tendencies of the right, to reassure us on this front. The argument that he has to give away everything in order to get elected is substantively only an argument that we have no reason to elect him...
But here's the catch-22: The left version of the lesser evilist argument stresses that it's unrealistic and maybe unfair to expect anything of the Dems in the absence of a movement that could push them, and no such movement exists. True enough, but where is such a movement to come from if we accept the premise that the horizon of our political expectation has to be whatever the Dems are willing to do because demanding more will only put/keep the other guys in power, and they're worse?...
what makes the Dems every four years 'better' is always something that the hacks and yuppies are likely to imagine getting if they win, and their disgusting moralizing about the imperative to vote for their 'lesser evil'...means 'I may get what's important for me, but you have to recognize that what you need is naïve or impractical' -- is all about bullying the rest of us into believing we have an obligation to vote for what's good for them."
Reed was prescient.
If you do read the article, take the time to read the reply which follows the article; very good commentary in itself .
Obama, Blacks And Latinos
By Clarence Lusane
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Change Text Size a- | A+
Clarence Lusane's ZSpace Page
Join ZSpace
The White House must draw the right conclusions from recent dismal polls.
President Obama’s popularity is at its lowest point since taking office. A Gallup poll has him at a 41 percent approval rating. Although other polls have him closer to 45 percent, none is encouraging.
The polls demonstrate that much of the disapproval is coming from segments of the voters who will not support Obama under any circumstances. The voters who are feeling no love for Obama are older, less educated, higher income, more religious — and more white. Among whites, he has only a 39 percent approval rating.
There may not be much Obama can do about this constituency.
What the Obama team really needs to worry about — ignored by most analysts — is the drop in support from black and Latino voters. Although his support among blacks is still in the stratosphere, and although it is a bit above 50 percent among Latinos, the trends are all in the wrong direction.
In January 2010, he had a 92 percent approval rating from blacks; now it’s 85 percent. Back then, Latinos gave him a 65 percent approval rating; now it’s 54 percent. Even more ominous, in January 2009, Latinos gave Obama a 73 percent approval rating.
Given the configuration of Obama’s 2008 win, he absolutely must have every black and Latino vote he can garner. He will not only need over 90 percent of the black vote and perhaps 70 percent of the Latino vote; he will also need an extremely high turnout from both.
Weakening black support is being driven by a number of factors, some practical, others more philosophical. At over 15 percent, black unemployment is nearly twice that of whites and Asians, and it is not falling the way it is for these other groups.
The recession is having a disproportionately negative impact on people of color. As a new report by the Center for Social Inclusion notes, referring to blacks and Latinos, “The recession is not over — it is just hitting its stride.”
Lack of an immigration policy, failure to pass the DREAM Act and sky high deportations have moved some Latinos away from the administration, though it is hard to imagine that the anti-immigrant Republicans will end up receiving strong support from them.
At a more general level, there is a palatable frustration that the Obama administration has run away from race issues. The persistent disparities that exist regarding access to health care and quality education, and the ongoing discrimination within our criminal justice system, gnaw at blacks and Latinos.
Obama has refused to embrace any race-specific policies to address these inequities, even though only a sharp focus on these issues will begin to resolve them.
As a result, Obama’s appeal is perceived by a growing number of blacks as largely symbolic. And his main argument seems to be, “I’m better than the Republicans.”
That may not enough to inspire the turnout he needs from blacks and Latinos.
Clarence Lusane, Ph.D., is the program director/associate professor of comparative and regional studies in the School of International Service at American University. He is author of many books, including The Black History of the White House, published earlier in the Open Media Series by City Lights Books, www.citylights.com. He can be reached at [email protected].
Comment On This Commentary See All Comments (1)
from: "Where Obamaism Seems to be Going"
By Kershner, Harry at Apr 29, 2011 22:28 PM
BEFORE Obama's election, Adolph Reed, Jr., warned:
"And there's no reason, other than the will to believe, to expect that Obama would be any better [than McCain], and it's entirely likely that in some ways - including those bearing on racial justice - he'll be worse, again by moving the boundaries of thinkable liberalism that much farther to the right. There is nothing in his record, much less his recent courting of some of the worst tendencies of the right, to reassure us on this front. The argument that he has to give away everything in order to get elected is substantively only an argument that we have no reason to elect him...
But here's the catch-22: The left version of the lesser evilist argument stresses that it's unrealistic and maybe unfair to expect anything of the Dems in the absence of a movement that could push them, and no such movement exists. True enough, but where is such a movement to come from if we accept the premise that the horizon of our political expectation has to be whatever the Dems are willing to do because demanding more will only put/keep the other guys in power, and they're worse?...
what makes the Dems every four years 'better' is always something that the hacks and yuppies are likely to imagine getting if they win, and their disgusting moralizing about the imperative to vote for their 'lesser evil'...means 'I may get what's important for me, but you have to recognize that what you need is naïve or impractical' -- is all about bullying the rest of us into believing we have an obligation to vote for what's good for them."
Reed was prescient.