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"A TWO-HORSE RACE": PHILLIPS AIDE HANDICAPS
FEBRUARY 25 INTERNAL PNP ELECTION TO SUCCEED PM PATTERSON
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Summary
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¶1. (C) On January 30, a close confidant of National Security
Minister Peter Phillips discussed the campaigns of Phillips,
Local Government, Community and Sport Minister Portia Simpson
Miller, Finance Minister Omar Davies, and former Water and
Housing Minister Karl Blythe to succeed P.J. Patterson as
party leader and prime minister. With the internal PNP
election set for February 25, our contact was confident that
Phillips has sewn up sufficient backing among the 4000 voting
PNP delegates, and locked in the support of a majority of the
PNP's parliamentary group. He echoed frequent criticisms of
Simpson Miller that she is ill-prepared to be prime minister,
faulted Davies for running his campaign badly, and dismissed
Blythe as standing no chance. Our contact also judged it
unlikely that significant violence would erupt surrounding
the February 25 election, and he expressed concern at several
unsavory political operatives with Simpson Miller's campaign.
Many PNP-ers fault Patterson for not having sewn up the
succession issue more cleanly and quietly. End Summary.
¶2. (C) On January 30, XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect), a senior aide
to, and confidant of, National Security Minister Peter
Phillips, discussed with DCM and P/ECouns the state of play
leading up to the February 25 Peoples National Party (PNP)
internal election. The PNP election is being held to
determine which of four senior PNP officials -- Phillips;
Minister of Local Government, Community and Sport Portia
Simpson Miller; Finance Minister Omar Davies; or former PNP
minister Karl Blythe -- will succeed P.J. Patterson as party
president and as prime minister.
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Phillips Confident of Victory
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¶3. (C) Noting that the winning candidate need only secure a
plurality among approximately 4000 PNP delegates authorized
to vote on February 25, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that after more than
two years of nationwide campaigning and quiet, grassroots political organizational work, Phillips has received firm
commitments of support from perhaps 1500 delegates - far
more, he maintained, than any of the other candidates. He
readily acknowledged that Simpson Miller enjoys nationwide
personal popularity far in excess of Phillips or the other
candidates, but emphasized that February 25 will be a contest
among voting PNP delegates only, while adding that Phillips
enjoys the backing of a majority of PNP Members of
Parliament. In a sly aside, XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Phillips
"believes he has the support of the U.S. Embassy." DCM
agreed that we have worked closely with Phillips on security
and law enforcement issues, and appreciated both the
Minister's pragmatism and his willingness to cooperate in
matters of mutual concern. DCM added, however, that we have
also worked well - if less closely given their respective
current portfolios - with Simpson Miller and Davies.
¶4. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's estimation, Phillips and Portia Simpson
Miller are the only viable candidates. "It's a two-horse
race," he enthused. Like many of her critics, XXXXXXXXXXXX
opined that Simpson Miller lacks the substance to be prime
minister. (Note: On February 2, Simpson Miller reportedly
pulled out of a four-way, nationally televised debate between
the four PNP candidates, citing previous commitments and
uncertainties about the firmness of the date. Not
surprisingly, her critics were quick to point to her
withdrawal as evidence that Simpson Miller was afraid to risk
facing her opponents in such a forum. End note.)
Furthermore, said XXXXXXXXXXXX, key PNP leaders and supporters
would refuse to back Simpson Miller even if she were to
prevail among the delegates. He listed Foreign Minister K.D.
Knight, who has declared his support for Phillips and who
clashed memorably and profanely with Simpson Miller in
Parliament in 2005, as particularly opposed to Simpson
Miller, with the influential Education Minister, Sharon
Hay-Webster, similarly disposed. Reminded that Simpson
Miller is easily the most popular politician of either party
with the masses, XXXXXXXXXXXX, without disputing the point,
replied that "they don't necessarily want to see one of their
own up there" as prime minister.
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Corruption Concerns
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¶5. (C) Perhaps for effect, XXXXXXXXXXXX professed concern about
support for Simpson Miller's campaign from notably
unscrupulous figures such as Paul Burke, a 1970's-era
radical-turned-businessman and backroom PNP operative.
XXXXXXXXXXXX described Burke as being politically savvy and
intellectually gifted, and therefore of great use to Simpson
Miller's campaign. At the same time, he said, given Burke's
past shady dealings and associations, Burke had attached
himself to Simpson Miller's campaign because he is able to
exercise greater influence with her, and because he hopes to
benefit from a Simpson Miller victory. Minister of Commerce,
Science, Technology, and Energy Phillip Paulwell is another
PNP "politician with a past" who is backing Simpson Miller,
said XXXXXXXXXXXX. (Note: Paulwell, reportedly a longtime
associate of and close collaborator with Burke, was a rising
political star until 2001, when he approved a USD 4 million
loan to a private telecom company known to be in financial
trouble, and which subsequently collapsed. End note.)
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Davies and Blythe: XXXXXXXXXXXX's Also-Rans
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¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was entirely dismissive of Karl Blythe's
low-profile campaign, saying that Phillips had won over key
delegates from under Blythe's nose, in Blythe's own home
constituency. He characterized Blythe as erratic and
unpredictable, and observed that he seemed to be in the race
"because of ego." (Note: Blythe was forced to resign as
Water and Housing Minister in 2002 after he was found to have
acted improperly in supervising a low-income housing grant
program. End note.) Though more respectful of Finance
Minister Omar Davies and his "Campaign for Prosperity",
XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Davies has run his campaign badly thus
far, causing private sector donors to lose faith and reduce
considerably their funding for his effort. According to
XXXXXXXXXXXX, Patterson persuaded Davies to enter the race to
provide a more promising (and palatable) alternative than
Blythe to Phillips and Simpson Miller, and because Patterson
harbors long-standing grudges against both Phillips and
Simpson Miller. Patterson, he explained, has never forgotten
that it was Phillips who conveyed then-Prime Minister Michael
Manley's 1991 request for Patterson's resignation as Finance
Minister after Patterson was found to have improperly waived
fuel import duties for a PNP crony who was also the local
manager for a multinational petroleum company. As for
Simpson Miller, she earned Patterson's ire by daring to run
(unsuccessfully, as it turned out) against him to succeed
Manley in 1992, and by frequently missing or arriving late to
Cabinet meetings over the years, which Patterson viewed as a
lack of respect for his authority.
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PNP: Unity or Internecine Violence?
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¶7. (C) Asked to assess prospects for electoral violence
(among supporters of the various PNP candidates) around the
February 25 election date, XXXXXXXXXXXX conceded the possibility
of localized incidents. He downplayed the likelihood of
widespread violence, however, saying that he expected the
party to unite - however grudgingly - behind the winner.
Patterson has publicly declared his intention to turn over
the reins to a successor by April. Publicly and behind the
scenes, he will do everything he can to resolve any disputes
among the contenders or between the factions to preserve
party unity for the next elections, which are due by October
¶2007. Moreover, XXXXXXXXXXXX continued, most PNP supporters also understand that, regardless of who succeeds Patterson in
February, that individual will need the backing of a unified
party to prevail over the JLP's Bruce Golding in the general
election. Given any government's control of resources, he
said, PNP loyalists can be expected to circle wagons behind
their party's leader rather than face the prospect of being
voted out of office.
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Comment
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¶8. (C) We had the distinct impression that XXXXXXXXXXXX's
willingness to discuss the campaign suited his boss.
Notwithstanding his close affiliation with Phillips, however,
XXXXXXXXXXXX's reflections offer useful insights into the
internal PNP maneuvering to succeed Patterson. XXXXXXXXXXXX's
assessment that Phillips and Simpson Miller are the two most
likely victors on February 25 tracks with what we are hearing
elsewhere, publicly and privately. That said, we note that
Blythe has already surprised most observers when, in February
2005 (Ref B), he easily outpolled Simpson Miller and Phillips
in the race for one of the four PNP vice-presidencies. For
his part, Davies is both respected and reviled for,
respectively, his adroit handling of the GOJ's tricky
financial situation, and for whatever economic discomfort
Jamaicans attribute to his policies. The Finance Minister's
Achilles heel in the race might also be the perception among
some in his party (including delegates) that, unlike Phillips
and Simpson Miller, he has not sufficiently paid his dues by
moving through a succession of PNP positions over the years.
Jamaican politics are not for the faint-hearted or for the
pure, and all four candidates doubtless have their skeletons.
That said, the involvement of Paul Burke, Danhai Williams,
Kenneth "Skeng Don" Black, and their ilk with the Simpson
Miller campaign - or indeed any other - is cause for some
concern.
¶9. (C) Comment (cont'd): The JLP, with its long history of
fractiousness, underwent a particularly messy and very public
leadership succession struggle in 2004-2005, while the PNP
has always prided itself on its ability to resolve its
differences internally. After 14 years in office, Patterson
is stepping down having become Jamaica's most successful
politician by winning the past four general elections.
Still, his refusal or failure to sew up the succession issue
more cleanly has already led to what some party faithful
consider an unseemly battle, with four prominent PNP
candidates publicly enumerating each others' faults and
failures before a national audience. XXXXXXXXXXXX may well be
correct in predicting that PNP's need for unity will prevail
over the possibility of violence in the run-up to, or
following, the February 25 party election. We certainly hope
so, as PNP supporters from whichever camp presumably would
not want to give undecided voters reason to prefer the PNP in
the general elections, which must be held by October 2007.
Given what is at stake later this month, however - leadership
of the PNP and the country leading into general elections,
and with the PNP having formed the government since 1989 -
the possibility that one or another faction's supporters will
be dissatisfied with the outcome, and willing to cause
trouble, cannot be dismissed.
¶10. (SBU) Further developments in the PNP succession saga
will unfold in the coming days. All four PNP candidates had
agreed to square off in a one-off, nationally televised
debate on February 7, which would have forced them more
clearly to define themselves vis-a-vis their opponents.
Simpson Miller's "unavailability", if true, could reasonably
be interpreted as evidence that she does not wish to risk
embarrassment, but organizational questions surrounding the
event (unrelated to her participation) have also cast doubt
as to whether the debate will come off. Either way, one or
more of the weaker candidates may well withdraw at some point
before February 25 after negotiating with one of the stronger
camps to support their candidate...for a price.
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: CRIME AND CORRUPTION CHALLENGES FACING
THE NEW GOVERNMENT OF PRIME MINISTER BRUCE GOLDING
REF: A. KINGSTON 1445 (201732Z SEP 07)(NOTAL)
¶B. 06 KINGSTON 2021 (121230Z OCT 06)(NOTAL)
Classified By: Charge' James T. Heg, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)
Overview and Conclusion
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1.(C) This second of several cables outlining challenges
facing the new Government of Prime Minister (PM) Bruce
Golding's Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) focuses on the
deep-seated problems of crime and corruption. During his
electoral campaign and in his inaugural address, Golding
promised his government would have the political will to
tackle crime, violence, and corruption. These assertions now
will be tested severely:
(A) with murders up an alarming 17 percent thus far in 2007,
Jamaica looks set once again to top the charts as the world's
homicide capital;
(B) with his government facing a USD 260 million current year
deficit and a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 140 percent
(Reftel A), it is unknown how Golding can keep his promise to
bring the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) up to full
strength (8,500), and meet the promise of the previous
administration to grant police officers a 40 hour work week;
(C) after 18 years in power, the outgoing senior officials of
the People's National Party (PNP) would be likely targets of
any corruption investigations-- the PM thus can expect little
cooperation from the PNP Opposition in Parliament, where his
own ruling JLP enjoys only a narrow majority; whether Golding
will be able to muster sufficient support to pass legislation
needed to accomplish his anti-corruption goals remains
unclear.
End Overview and Conclusion.
Crime and Violence
-----------------------
2.(SBU) In his inaugural address, PM Golding promised to make
the reduction of crime a priority of his government. His
stated goal is to create a country where "Jamaicans can feel
safe and secure." Golding has taken the reins three-quarters
of the way through a year in which Jamaica looks to again top
the charts as the murder capital of the world. In 2006, the
Jamaica Constabulary Force was able to reduce the murder rate
by nearly 10 percent but crime statistics released on
September 16, indicate that murders for 2007 are up by 17
percent over 2006 numbers. Of note is that there are twice
as many reported gang-related murders this year vis-Q-vis the
same time last year, and island wide the clearance rate
remains a low 34 percent. (Note: Clearance rates in the
Kingston Area are only 31 percent). For other violent crimes
it is a mixed bag, shootings are up 13 percent over last
year, but the categories of rape, sexual abuse of children,
and robbery all show decreases, -1 percent, -6 percent, and
-27 percent, respectively. (Note: Jamaica was recently
cited in a UN/World Bank report as having the third worst
incidence of rape in the world).
3.(SBU) On September 19, the new Minister of National
Security, Derrick Smith, announced a reinvigoration of "hot
spot" policing and increased use of check points and traffic
stops in troubled neighborhoods to quell the murder rate.
This is a strategy that current Deputy Commissioner of
Police, Mark Shields has been urging the government to adopt
for months. It appears that recent headline articles about
August being the third bloodiest month this year have gotten
Minister Smith's attention.
4.(C) In addition to being under-staffed and under-paid, the
Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) is known to be rife with
corruption. In its last months in office, the previous
government began a strategic review of the JCF, the third
such review to occur in the last five years. It appears that
Golding's new Minister of National Security will continue
this review. Even if the review is as comprehensive and
honest as promised, it remains to be seen whether the Golding
government will have the muscle to push forward the
legislative changes required to enable the imposition of a
rational personnel system, with adequate provisions to
discipline and remove underperforming and corrupt cops from
the force. Because many senior leaders within the JCF,
including its Commissioner, have been identified by sources
as corrupt, in reality, without a complete housecleaning of
the JCF leadership, no real change will occur.
5.(C) In a September 19 meeting between NAS Director and
Senior Ministry of National Security officials, the Special
Advisor on Policy, Anne-Marie Barnes, indicated that the new
Minister holds a dim view of Senior leadership within the JCF
and said she anticipates efforts to change the leadership
from the top down. This will not be an easy task for the
Police Services Commission, which is the legal entity
responsible for the hiring, disciplining, and firing of
senior police officers. Commission board members have
indicated on numerous occasions that they hoped to Q&retire
in the public interestQ8 senior members of the JCF, to
include Commissioner Thomas. However, recent court rulings
have declared that retirement in the public interest is
beyond the mandate of the PSC, thus effectively tying its
hands. How Minister Smith now plans to remove corrupt and
ineffective leadership seems unclear. Given the lucrative
parallel income stream that most senior members enjoy, it
appears highly unlikely that they would opt to voluntarily
resign from the JCF.
6.(SBU) In addition, how Golding will keep his promise to
bring the Jamaica Constabulary Force up to full strength
(8,500), and meet the promise of the previous administration
to grant police officers a 40 hour work week, when his
government is already facing a J$ 18 billion current year
deficit (USD 260 million) is unknown.
Corruption
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7.(U) Golding also promised to make "transparency and
accountability in government and the elimination of
corruption a priority." According to Golding a "new
framework" for good governance is at the "top of our agenda."
To do so, Golding proposed several specific initiatives,
which all require legislative and some constitutional changes:
-- Imposition of criminal sanctions for violations of
government contracting rules and procedures;
-- Creation of a Special Prosecutor to investigate and
prosecute corruption; and,
-- Passage of legislation to protect whistleblowers, and
enable the removal of public officials guilty of "misconduct,
corruption, abuse of authority, or betrayal of public trust."
8.(SBU) There already exists a grab bag of toothless
organizations to combat corruption in Jamaica-- the
Contractor General, which is the government watchdog on
public contracting, and the Commission for the Prevention of
Corruption, a sub-organ for the Ministry of Justice, to name
two. Neither of these organizations has its own independent
budget, nor does either have adequate staff or investigative
resources. As was evident in the Trafigura scandal, which
broke in the fall of 2006 (Reftel B), the Contractor General
can make headlines, but is unable to do more. The Commission
for the Prevention of Corruption's main task seems to be the
collection of financial disclosure statements from public
officials. However, once collected, the statements are kept
confidential; for example, the Financial Investigative
SIPDIS
Division's requests for review of these documents to verify
"reported income" versus what it has uncovered in
money-laundering investigations are categorically refused.
9.(C) To remediate the problem and give anti-corruption
efforts teeth, Golding's new government has already begun
exploring a long-standing JLP promise to establish a special
prosecutor for anti-corruption. According to the JSP former
Shadow Minister, now Speaker of the House, Delroy Chuck,
ideally this prosecutor would have to be independent of the
Office of the Public Prosecutor. The current head of the
Office of the Public Prosecutor has stated that setting up an
independent Special Prosecutor is not possible without
constitutional change, and he seems thoroughly opposed to the
notion, probably believing that such an entity would reduce
his office's power. His view regarding the need for
constitutional change is shared by senior leadership within
the Ministry of National Security, whose opinions may also be
colored by the fact that creation of such a prosecutor would
dilute the Ministry's control over a key national security
matter.
10.(SBU) After 18 years in power, the outgoing senior PNP
government officials are likely targets of any corruption
investigations. Golding thus can expect little cooperation
from PNP opposition members, while his ruling JLP enjoys only
a narrow parliamentary majority. Whether Golding will be
able to muster sufficient parliamentary support to pass the
necessary legislation to accomplish his anti-corruption goals
remains unclear. Without outside financial assistance, the
Jamaican Government is unlikely to have the financial
resources necessary to provide budgets for these
organizations to fund quality vetted investigative staff.
11.(C) Golding's own party leadership and the JLP's political
supporters are not without their own bad apples. The new
Minister without portfolio in the Office of the Prime
Minister, James Robertson, is involved in unspecified
criminal activity, according to the local UK High Commission.
In addition, Christopher Coke, a known drug don, has been a
financial backer of the JLP. Golding has told us privately
that he wants to isolate and remove tainted individuals from
involvement in the JLP. However, to do so, he needs more
than just rumors. He has approached the Embassy in the past
for information on suspect individuals. How the USG would be
able to assist Golding with evidence of wrongdoing on the
part of party members and/or supporters bears consideration.
12.(SBU) According to a recent report by the Jamaican Justice
System Reform Project, even if the Special Prosecutor's
office is established, it would have difficulty moving cases
through the Jamaican Judicial system: a broken institution
with clogged dockets, inadequate infrastructure, overburdened
and underperforming judges, and an inability to seat juries
and protect witnesses.
13.(SBU) Conclusion: Golding understands that the missing
piece is not necessarily resources; it is political will.
During his campaign as well as in his inaugural address, he
promised that his government would have the political will to
tackle crime, violence, and corruption. These assertions now
will be tested severely. End Conclusion.
Source: http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2007/0...GSTON1462.html
"A TWO-HORSE RACE": PHILLIPS AIDE HANDICAPS
FEBRUARY 25 INTERNAL PNP ELECTION TO SUCCEED PM PATTERSON
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Summary
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¶1. (C) On January 30, a close confidant of National Security
Minister Peter Phillips discussed the campaigns of Phillips,
Local Government, Community and Sport Minister Portia Simpson
Miller, Finance Minister Omar Davies, and former Water and
Housing Minister Karl Blythe to succeed P.J. Patterson as
party leader and prime minister. With the internal PNP
election set for February 25, our contact was confident that
Phillips has sewn up sufficient backing among the 4000 voting
PNP delegates, and locked in the support of a majority of the
PNP's parliamentary group. He echoed frequent criticisms of
Simpson Miller that she is ill-prepared to be prime minister,
faulted Davies for running his campaign badly, and dismissed
Blythe as standing no chance. Our contact also judged it
unlikely that significant violence would erupt surrounding
the February 25 election, and he expressed concern at several
unsavory political operatives with Simpson Miller's campaign.
Many PNP-ers fault Patterson for not having sewn up the
succession issue more cleanly and quietly. End Summary.
¶2. (C) On January 30, XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect), a senior aide
to, and confidant of, National Security Minister Peter
Phillips, discussed with DCM and P/ECouns the state of play
leading up to the February 25 Peoples National Party (PNP)
internal election. The PNP election is being held to
determine which of four senior PNP officials -- Phillips;
Minister of Local Government, Community and Sport Portia
Simpson Miller; Finance Minister Omar Davies; or former PNP
minister Karl Blythe -- will succeed P.J. Patterson as party
president and as prime minister.
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Phillips Confident of Victory
-----------------------------
¶3. (C) Noting that the winning candidate need only secure a
plurality among approximately 4000 PNP delegates authorized
to vote on February 25, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that after more than
two years of nationwide campaigning and quiet, grassroots political organizational work, Phillips has received firm
commitments of support from perhaps 1500 delegates - far
more, he maintained, than any of the other candidates. He
readily acknowledged that Simpson Miller enjoys nationwide
personal popularity far in excess of Phillips or the other
candidates, but emphasized that February 25 will be a contest
among voting PNP delegates only, while adding that Phillips
enjoys the backing of a majority of PNP Members of
Parliament. In a sly aside, XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Phillips
"believes he has the support of the U.S. Embassy." DCM
agreed that we have worked closely with Phillips on security
and law enforcement issues, and appreciated both the
Minister's pragmatism and his willingness to cooperate in
matters of mutual concern. DCM added, however, that we have
also worked well - if less closely given their respective
current portfolios - with Simpson Miller and Davies.
¶4. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's estimation, Phillips and Portia Simpson
Miller are the only viable candidates. "It's a two-horse
race," he enthused. Like many of her critics, XXXXXXXXXXXX
opined that Simpson Miller lacks the substance to be prime
minister. (Note: On February 2, Simpson Miller reportedly
pulled out of a four-way, nationally televised debate between
the four PNP candidates, citing previous commitments and
uncertainties about the firmness of the date. Not
surprisingly, her critics were quick to point to her
withdrawal as evidence that Simpson Miller was afraid to risk
facing her opponents in such a forum. End note.)
Furthermore, said XXXXXXXXXXXX, key PNP leaders and supporters
would refuse to back Simpson Miller even if she were to
prevail among the delegates. He listed Foreign Minister K.D.
Knight, who has declared his support for Phillips and who
clashed memorably and profanely with Simpson Miller in
Parliament in 2005, as particularly opposed to Simpson
Miller, with the influential Education Minister, Sharon
Hay-Webster, similarly disposed. Reminded that Simpson
Miller is easily the most popular politician of either party
with the masses, XXXXXXXXXXXX, without disputing the point,
replied that "they don't necessarily want to see one of their
own up there" as prime minister.
-------------------
Corruption Concerns
-------------------
¶5. (C) Perhaps for effect, XXXXXXXXXXXX professed concern about
support for Simpson Miller's campaign from notably
unscrupulous figures such as Paul Burke, a 1970's-era
radical-turned-businessman and backroom PNP operative.
XXXXXXXXXXXX described Burke as being politically savvy and
intellectually gifted, and therefore of great use to Simpson
Miller's campaign. At the same time, he said, given Burke's
past shady dealings and associations, Burke had attached
himself to Simpson Miller's campaign because he is able to
exercise greater influence with her, and because he hopes to
benefit from a Simpson Miller victory. Minister of Commerce,
Science, Technology, and Energy Phillip Paulwell is another
PNP "politician with a past" who is backing Simpson Miller,
said XXXXXXXXXXXX. (Note: Paulwell, reportedly a longtime
associate of and close collaborator with Burke, was a rising
political star until 2001, when he approved a USD 4 million
loan to a private telecom company known to be in financial
trouble, and which subsequently collapsed. End note.)
----------------------------------------
Davies and Blythe: XXXXXXXXXXXX's Also-Rans
----------------------------------------
¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was entirely dismissive of Karl Blythe's
low-profile campaign, saying that Phillips had won over key
delegates from under Blythe's nose, in Blythe's own home
constituency. He characterized Blythe as erratic and
unpredictable, and observed that he seemed to be in the race
"because of ego." (Note: Blythe was forced to resign as
Water and Housing Minister in 2002 after he was found to have
acted improperly in supervising a low-income housing grant
program. End note.) Though more respectful of Finance
Minister Omar Davies and his "Campaign for Prosperity",
XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Davies has run his campaign badly thus
far, causing private sector donors to lose faith and reduce
considerably their funding for his effort. According to
XXXXXXXXXXXX, Patterson persuaded Davies to enter the race to
provide a more promising (and palatable) alternative than
Blythe to Phillips and Simpson Miller, and because Patterson
harbors long-standing grudges against both Phillips and
Simpson Miller. Patterson, he explained, has never forgotten
that it was Phillips who conveyed then-Prime Minister Michael
Manley's 1991 request for Patterson's resignation as Finance
Minister after Patterson was found to have improperly waived
fuel import duties for a PNP crony who was also the local
manager for a multinational petroleum company. As for
Simpson Miller, she earned Patterson's ire by daring to run
(unsuccessfully, as it turned out) against him to succeed
Manley in 1992, and by frequently missing or arriving late to
Cabinet meetings over the years, which Patterson viewed as a
lack of respect for his authority.
------------------------------------
PNP: Unity or Internecine Violence?
------------------------------------
¶7. (C) Asked to assess prospects for electoral violence
(among supporters of the various PNP candidates) around the
February 25 election date, XXXXXXXXXXXX conceded the possibility
of localized incidents. He downplayed the likelihood of
widespread violence, however, saying that he expected the
party to unite - however grudgingly - behind the winner.
Patterson has publicly declared his intention to turn over
the reins to a successor by April. Publicly and behind the
scenes, he will do everything he can to resolve any disputes
among the contenders or between the factions to preserve
party unity for the next elections, which are due by October
¶2007. Moreover, XXXXXXXXXXXX continued, most PNP supporters also understand that, regardless of who succeeds Patterson in
February, that individual will need the backing of a unified
party to prevail over the JLP's Bruce Golding in the general
election. Given any government's control of resources, he
said, PNP loyalists can be expected to circle wagons behind
their party's leader rather than face the prospect of being
voted out of office.
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Comment
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¶8. (C) We had the distinct impression that XXXXXXXXXXXX's
willingness to discuss the campaign suited his boss.
Notwithstanding his close affiliation with Phillips, however,
XXXXXXXXXXXX's reflections offer useful insights into the
internal PNP maneuvering to succeed Patterson. XXXXXXXXXXXX's
assessment that Phillips and Simpson Miller are the two most
likely victors on February 25 tracks with what we are hearing
elsewhere, publicly and privately. That said, we note that
Blythe has already surprised most observers when, in February
2005 (Ref B), he easily outpolled Simpson Miller and Phillips
in the race for one of the four PNP vice-presidencies. For
his part, Davies is both respected and reviled for,
respectively, his adroit handling of the GOJ's tricky
financial situation, and for whatever economic discomfort
Jamaicans attribute to his policies. The Finance Minister's
Achilles heel in the race might also be the perception among
some in his party (including delegates) that, unlike Phillips
and Simpson Miller, he has not sufficiently paid his dues by
moving through a succession of PNP positions over the years.
Jamaican politics are not for the faint-hearted or for the
pure, and all four candidates doubtless have their skeletons.
That said, the involvement of Paul Burke, Danhai Williams,
Kenneth "Skeng Don" Black, and their ilk with the Simpson
Miller campaign - or indeed any other - is cause for some
concern.
¶9. (C) Comment (cont'd): The JLP, with its long history of
fractiousness, underwent a particularly messy and very public
leadership succession struggle in 2004-2005, while the PNP
has always prided itself on its ability to resolve its
differences internally. After 14 years in office, Patterson
is stepping down having become Jamaica's most successful
politician by winning the past four general elections.
Still, his refusal or failure to sew up the succession issue
more cleanly has already led to what some party faithful
consider an unseemly battle, with four prominent PNP
candidates publicly enumerating each others' faults and
failures before a national audience. XXXXXXXXXXXX may well be
correct in predicting that PNP's need for unity will prevail
over the possibility of violence in the run-up to, or
following, the February 25 party election. We certainly hope
so, as PNP supporters from whichever camp presumably would
not want to give undecided voters reason to prefer the PNP in
the general elections, which must be held by October 2007.
Given what is at stake later this month, however - leadership
of the PNP and the country leading into general elections,
and with the PNP having formed the government since 1989 -
the possibility that one or another faction's supporters will
be dissatisfied with the outcome, and willing to cause
trouble, cannot be dismissed.
¶10. (SBU) Further developments in the PNP succession saga
will unfold in the coming days. All four PNP candidates had
agreed to square off in a one-off, nationally televised
debate on February 7, which would have forced them more
clearly to define themselves vis-a-vis their opponents.
Simpson Miller's "unavailability", if true, could reasonably
be interpreted as evidence that she does not wish to risk
embarrassment, but organizational questions surrounding the
event (unrelated to her participation) have also cast doubt
as to whether the debate will come off. Either way, one or
more of the weaker candidates may well withdraw at some point
before February 25 after negotiating with one of the stronger
camps to support their candidate...for a price.
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: CRIME AND CORRUPTION CHALLENGES FACING
THE NEW GOVERNMENT OF PRIME MINISTER BRUCE GOLDING
REF: A. KINGSTON 1445 (201732Z SEP 07)(NOTAL)
¶B. 06 KINGSTON 2021 (121230Z OCT 06)(NOTAL)
Classified By: Charge' James T. Heg, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)
Overview and Conclusion
-------------------------------
1.(C) This second of several cables outlining challenges
facing the new Government of Prime Minister (PM) Bruce
Golding's Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) focuses on the
deep-seated problems of crime and corruption. During his
electoral campaign and in his inaugural address, Golding
promised his government would have the political will to
tackle crime, violence, and corruption. These assertions now
will be tested severely:
(A) with murders up an alarming 17 percent thus far in 2007,
Jamaica looks set once again to top the charts as the world's
homicide capital;
(B) with his government facing a USD 260 million current year
deficit and a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 140 percent
(Reftel A), it is unknown how Golding can keep his promise to
bring the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) up to full
strength (8,500), and meet the promise of the previous
administration to grant police officers a 40 hour work week;
(C) after 18 years in power, the outgoing senior officials of
the People's National Party (PNP) would be likely targets of
any corruption investigations-- the PM thus can expect little
cooperation from the PNP Opposition in Parliament, where his
own ruling JLP enjoys only a narrow majority; whether Golding
will be able to muster sufficient support to pass legislation
needed to accomplish his anti-corruption goals remains
unclear.
End Overview and Conclusion.
Crime and Violence
-----------------------
2.(SBU) In his inaugural address, PM Golding promised to make
the reduction of crime a priority of his government. His
stated goal is to create a country where "Jamaicans can feel
safe and secure." Golding has taken the reins three-quarters
of the way through a year in which Jamaica looks to again top
the charts as the murder capital of the world. In 2006, the
Jamaica Constabulary Force was able to reduce the murder rate
by nearly 10 percent but crime statistics released on
September 16, indicate that murders for 2007 are up by 17
percent over 2006 numbers. Of note is that there are twice
as many reported gang-related murders this year vis-Q-vis the
same time last year, and island wide the clearance rate
remains a low 34 percent. (Note: Clearance rates in the
Kingston Area are only 31 percent). For other violent crimes
it is a mixed bag, shootings are up 13 percent over last
year, but the categories of rape, sexual abuse of children,
and robbery all show decreases, -1 percent, -6 percent, and
-27 percent, respectively. (Note: Jamaica was recently
cited in a UN/World Bank report as having the third worst
incidence of rape in the world).
3.(SBU) On September 19, the new Minister of National
Security, Derrick Smith, announced a reinvigoration of "hot
spot" policing and increased use of check points and traffic
stops in troubled neighborhoods to quell the murder rate.
This is a strategy that current Deputy Commissioner of
Police, Mark Shields has been urging the government to adopt
for months. It appears that recent headline articles about
August being the third bloodiest month this year have gotten
Minister Smith's attention.
4.(C) In addition to being under-staffed and under-paid, the
Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) is known to be rife with
corruption. In its last months in office, the previous
government began a strategic review of the JCF, the third
such review to occur in the last five years. It appears that
Golding's new Minister of National Security will continue
this review. Even if the review is as comprehensive and
honest as promised, it remains to be seen whether the Golding
government will have the muscle to push forward the
legislative changes required to enable the imposition of a
rational personnel system, with adequate provisions to
discipline and remove underperforming and corrupt cops from
the force. Because many senior leaders within the JCF,
including its Commissioner, have been identified by sources
as corrupt, in reality, without a complete housecleaning of
the JCF leadership, no real change will occur.
5.(C) In a September 19 meeting between NAS Director and
Senior Ministry of National Security officials, the Special
Advisor on Policy, Anne-Marie Barnes, indicated that the new
Minister holds a dim view of Senior leadership within the JCF
and said she anticipates efforts to change the leadership
from the top down. This will not be an easy task for the
Police Services Commission, which is the legal entity
responsible for the hiring, disciplining, and firing of
senior police officers. Commission board members have
indicated on numerous occasions that they hoped to Q&retire
in the public interestQ8 senior members of the JCF, to
include Commissioner Thomas. However, recent court rulings
have declared that retirement in the public interest is
beyond the mandate of the PSC, thus effectively tying its
hands. How Minister Smith now plans to remove corrupt and
ineffective leadership seems unclear. Given the lucrative
parallel income stream that most senior members enjoy, it
appears highly unlikely that they would opt to voluntarily
resign from the JCF.
6.(SBU) In addition, how Golding will keep his promise to
bring the Jamaica Constabulary Force up to full strength
(8,500), and meet the promise of the previous administration
to grant police officers a 40 hour work week, when his
government is already facing a J$ 18 billion current year
deficit (USD 260 million) is unknown.
Corruption
-------------
7.(U) Golding also promised to make "transparency and
accountability in government and the elimination of
corruption a priority." According to Golding a "new
framework" for good governance is at the "top of our agenda."
To do so, Golding proposed several specific initiatives,
which all require legislative and some constitutional changes:
-- Imposition of criminal sanctions for violations of
government contracting rules and procedures;
-- Creation of a Special Prosecutor to investigate and
prosecute corruption; and,
-- Passage of legislation to protect whistleblowers, and
enable the removal of public officials guilty of "misconduct,
corruption, abuse of authority, or betrayal of public trust."
8.(SBU) There already exists a grab bag of toothless
organizations to combat corruption in Jamaica-- the
Contractor General, which is the government watchdog on
public contracting, and the Commission for the Prevention of
Corruption, a sub-organ for the Ministry of Justice, to name
two. Neither of these organizations has its own independent
budget, nor does either have adequate staff or investigative
resources. As was evident in the Trafigura scandal, which
broke in the fall of 2006 (Reftel B), the Contractor General
can make headlines, but is unable to do more. The Commission
for the Prevention of Corruption's main task seems to be the
collection of financial disclosure statements from public
officials. However, once collected, the statements are kept
confidential; for example, the Financial Investigative
SIPDIS
Division's requests for review of these documents to verify
"reported income" versus what it has uncovered in
money-laundering investigations are categorically refused.
9.(C) To remediate the problem and give anti-corruption
efforts teeth, Golding's new government has already begun
exploring a long-standing JLP promise to establish a special
prosecutor for anti-corruption. According to the JSP former
Shadow Minister, now Speaker of the House, Delroy Chuck,
ideally this prosecutor would have to be independent of the
Office of the Public Prosecutor. The current head of the
Office of the Public Prosecutor has stated that setting up an
independent Special Prosecutor is not possible without
constitutional change, and he seems thoroughly opposed to the
notion, probably believing that such an entity would reduce
his office's power. His view regarding the need for
constitutional change is shared by senior leadership within
the Ministry of National Security, whose opinions may also be
colored by the fact that creation of such a prosecutor would
dilute the Ministry's control over a key national security
matter.
10.(SBU) After 18 years in power, the outgoing senior PNP
government officials are likely targets of any corruption
investigations. Golding thus can expect little cooperation
from PNP opposition members, while his ruling JLP enjoys only
a narrow parliamentary majority. Whether Golding will be
able to muster sufficient parliamentary support to pass the
necessary legislation to accomplish his anti-corruption goals
remains unclear. Without outside financial assistance, the
Jamaican Government is unlikely to have the financial
resources necessary to provide budgets for these
organizations to fund quality vetted investigative staff.
11.(C) Golding's own party leadership and the JLP's political
supporters are not without their own bad apples. The new
Minister without portfolio in the Office of the Prime
Minister, James Robertson, is involved in unspecified
criminal activity, according to the local UK High Commission.
In addition, Christopher Coke, a known drug don, has been a
financial backer of the JLP. Golding has told us privately
that he wants to isolate and remove tainted individuals from
involvement in the JLP. However, to do so, he needs more
than just rumors. He has approached the Embassy in the past
for information on suspect individuals. How the USG would be
able to assist Golding with evidence of wrongdoing on the
part of party members and/or supporters bears consideration.
12.(SBU) According to a recent report by the Jamaican Justice
System Reform Project, even if the Special Prosecutor's
office is established, it would have difficulty moving cases
through the Jamaican Judicial system: a broken institution
with clogged dockets, inadequate infrastructure, overburdened
and underperforming judges, and an inability to seat juries
and protect witnesses.
13.(SBU) Conclusion: Golding understands that the missing
piece is not necessarily resources; it is political will.
During his campaign as well as in his inaugural address, he
promised that his government would have the political will to
tackle crime, violence, and corruption. These assertions now
will be tested severely. End Conclusion.
Source: http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2007/0...GSTON1462.html
, Patterson's thinking has evolved considerably, 
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