.. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

[RichD]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: remo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">..it is depressing to see the Liberals this low in the polls...this must be an all time low for them </div></div>

that was from the last federal election

[Emperah]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: remo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">..it is depressing to see the Liberals this low in the polls...this must be an all time low for them </div></div>

yeh dat was from de lass federeal, but mi nuh kno why ya gwaan suh nyhow aftah dem did screw de ppl ova an ova, wah yuh expect?

[RichD]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Emperah_dehyah</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: remo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">..it is depressing to see the Liberals this low in the polls...this must be an all time low for them </div></div>

yeh dat was from de lass federeal, but mi nuh kno why ya gwaan suh nyhow aftah dem did screw de ppl ova an ova, wah yuh expect? </div></div>

were you happy the last time your party won in ontario?

[Cultcha]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: RichD</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Emperah_dehyah</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: remo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">..it is depressing to see the Liberals this low in the polls...this must be an all time low for them </div></div>

yeh dat was from de lass federeal, but mi nuh kno why ya gwaan suh nyhow aftah dem did screw de ppl ova an ova, wah yuh expect? </div></div>

were you happy the last time your party won in ontario? </div></div>

I bet a lot of the government workers, nurses etc... would have gladly taken their Rae days rather than face layoffs under the Mike Harris era.

[Emperah]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: RichD</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Emperah_dehyah</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: remo</div><div class="ubbcode-body">..it is depressing to see the Liberals this low in the polls...this must be an all time low for them </div></div>

yeh dat was from de lass federeal, but mi nuh kno why ya gwaan suh nyhow aftah dem did screw de ppl ova an ova, wah yuh expect? </div></div>

were you happy the last time your party won in ontario? </div></div>
Yes I was, an mi membah when our union decided to back Mike Harris as well and i thought it was the dumbest move an look wah hapm...

[mountaingal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

from the toronto star

<span style="font-weight: bold">Massive poll finds minority looming</span>
Published On Sat Sep 24 2011

CHRIS YOUNG/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Robert Benzie Queen’s Park Bureau Chief

Ontario is headed toward a minority government for the first time in decades with the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives deadlocked, according to a major new poll.

A Forum Research survey of 40,750 people — one of the largest polling samples in Canadian political history — has the two parties separated by only 107 respondents, each holding 35 per cent. (14,064 said they will vote Liberal, while 13,957 selected the Conservatives.) Meanwhile, the New Democrats were at 23 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.

“Obviously, no one has closed the deal,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff told the Star on Friday.

Because of the large number of voters surveyed Forum was also able to provide riding-by-riding results. <span style="font-weight: bold">If those numbers were to be repeated on Oct. 6, the Liberals and Tories would be tied at 47 seats with the NDP only holding 13 seats in the 107-member Legislature. </span>However, the results for at least 28 ridings are within the margin of error, so seat predictions are not nearly as reliable as the total sample.

<span style="font-weight: bold">Even so, none of the parties appears likely at this point to be able to win the 54 seats needed for a majority government, which leaves Ontario poised for its first minority government since 1985.</span>

After that vote, the Liberals and NDP signed an accord that toppled the Tories, who had been in power for 42 years.

Bozinoff said it’s still possible for one of the parties to break out and win a majority, noting Tuesday’s provincially televised leaders’ debate could be crucial.

<span style="font-weight: bold">“The Tories are pretty much exactly where they were a month ago and it looks like the Liberals have cut into the NDP vote,” he said, adding Horwath “has not made as much of an impression as she should have.”</span>

“She’s been lost among the other two and it’s almost as if she’s too nice to make an impression.”

The results also mean the race has tightened since Forum’s last poll, which was conducted three weeks ago. Then, the Conservatives were leading the Liberals 35-30, with the NDP at 26 per cent and Greens at 6 per cent.

That means only the veteran Liberal leader has improved his fortunes during the writ period while his three rookie rivals have faltered.

There was a similar pattern when respondents were asked who would make the best premier. McGuinty was selected by 37 per cent, up five points from earlier in the summer. For his part Hudak has held steady in the low 30s and Horwath is in the mid-20s.

This latest interactive voice-response telephone poll — conducted Thursday and Friday and considered accurate to within 0.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 — highlights challenges for both McGuinty and Hudak.

“The Tories need an urban or at least a GTA strategy,” said Bozinoff, pointing out Hudak, whose party hasn’t won a Toronto seat since 1999, is getting shut out in the city and is faring poorly in the 905 region — especially Mississauga.

“Conversely, the Liberals are in need of a rural strategy,” said Bozinoff, warning most of the Grits’ losses appear to be coming to Tories outside major centres.

At dissolution, the Liberals held 70 seats, the Tories 25, the NDP 10, and there were two vacancies that had been Grit constituencies.

Bozinoff said winning the election could hinge on fewer than a dozen ridings where the poll shows the top candidates are within two percentage points of one another.

“Getting out the vote and being organized will count. Both the Liberals and the Tories have to be focusing on the same seven ridings or so,” he said.

“They’re so close, but they’re so far.”

Even with such a huge poll, Bozinoff emphasized there are some questionable results.

<span style="font-weight: bold">The survey suggests the Liberals would win Parkdale-High Park, an NDP stronghold for dynamo Cheri Di Novo, but lose St. Catharines, a seat held since 1977 by popular Grit Jim Bradley. <span style="font-style: italic">this guy is the legislaure's longest serving member[</span>/b] As well, it forecasts the Conservatives picking up Liberal-held Kitchener-Conestoga and Kitchener Centre, but falling short in Tory Elizabeth Witmer’s long-time riding of Kitchener-Waterloo. [b]And McGuinty himself is shown as only slightly ahead in his home riding of Ottawa South, one of the most reliably Liberal ridings in the province.</span>

“There are a few anomalies,” Bozinoff said.

Despite the poll’s indication that Tory support is sputtering in urban Ontario, the PC leader insisted he still has the wind at his back.

“Whether I am here in Thunder Bay, home in Niagara or in Mississauga or Toronto, people don’t want four more years of Dalton McGuinty,” Hudak said after he and Horwath had participated in a debate on northern issues.

Horwath rejected suggestions she had peaked.

“On the contrary. I’m pretty excited about the next couple of days leading up to the debate that happens in Toronto and the last week and a half of the campaign,” she said in Thunder Bay.

Speaking to the Star editorial board, McGuinty said his slow and steady approach appears to be paying off.

“We have run pretty well the same campaign that we have always run,” he said.

“Some of the best advice I ever got was from (former prime minister) Jean Chretien, he said: ‘Don’t watch any TV. Don’t listen to the radio or read any of the papers.’ People tell me what I need to know. Get into a zone and stay there — that is what I am doing.”

With files from Tanya Talaga

How the poll was conducted

Using interactive voice-response technology, Forum Research contacted 40,750 Ontario residents 18 or older by telephone in all 107 provincial ridings on Thursday and Friday.

“This is believed to be the largest poll of its kind ever in Canada,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff, who paid for the poll himself as a public service.

“It’s like a massive town hall meeting for 40,000 Ontarians,” he said of the poll in which respondents press buttons on their phones to indicate their answers to the pollster’s questions.

Forum’s results are considered accurate to within 0.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The number of people polled in each riding ranged from 54 in sparsely populated Timmins-James Bay to 656 in the Toronto constituency of St. Paul’s with most in the range of 400 to 500 people.

That allowed Bozinoff to make the seat projections forecasting a minority Legislature with 47 Liberals, 47 Progressive Conservatives, and 13 New Democrats.

Robert Benzie

Where the race will be won

A poll this large permits meaningful riding-by-riding breakdowns.

<span style="font-weight: bold">And according to the results there are the 28 ridings where one party’s lead is under five percentage points. The election, therefore, is likely to be determined in the following seats where the race is tightest.

Ancaster-Dundas

Beaches-East York

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton-Springdale

Halton

Kitchener Centre

Kitchener-Conestoga

Kitchener-Waterloo

London North Centre

London West

Mississauga East

Mississauga Erindale

Mississauga South

Niagara Falls

Oak Ridges-Markham

Ottawa South

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

St. Catharines

Thornhill

Thunder Bay-Atikokan

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Timmins-James Bay

Trinity-Spadina this is the home of long-serving NDPstalwart Rosario Marchese, surprised at this

Welland

Windsor-Tecumseh

Windsor West

York Centre</span>

[mountaingal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

my jamaican neighbour just had a PC sign put up on her lawn. and di ppl dem at work always look at me funny when i say the black community, generally speaking, leans conservative in its politics.


Carol Williams, a Trinidadian and former Catholic high school principal, running in Scarborough Centre.


Karlene Nation, a Jamaican, and former news anchor, running in York West. A bump on the head unleashed a pituitary tumor that has left her with permanent double vision and no peripheral vision.


Kirk Russell, a Jamaican, apparently owns his own construction company. Running in Davenport.

[mountaingal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

For the Lberals




Margarett Best, Jamaican, replaced another Jamaican, Mary Anne Chambers, in the riding of Scarborough Guildwood. Was Minister for Health Promotion and Sport.


[
Bas Balkissoon, Guyanese, incumbent in Scarborough Rouge River. Longtime politician, started on city council, took over the seat from another Jamaican, Alvin Curling.



Michael Coteau - didnt say where im born, so am going to presume he's Canadian born. Running in Don Valley East. Did a lot of work in the community of Malvern, which has a large black community.

[mountaingal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

For the NDP


Atinuke Bankole - a schoolteacher. Not sure if she's Canadian-born, her heritage appears to be Nigerian. Running in Cambridge - home to one of Ontario's historic black communities from the Underground Railroad.



Dionne Coley, again, I'm going to take a guess and say she's of Jamaican heritage because of her name. A college teacher, she's running in Etobicoke Lakeshore.



Wali Farah, a Somalian. Community worker running in Ottawa South against the Premier.



Kathleen Mathurin, running in Scarbrough Centre against the other black woman for the PCs, Carol Williams. Not sure of Kathleen's heritage, she's Canadian born.

[X]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<span style="font-family: 'Fixedsys'">Toronto Star - Who's ahead in your riding?</span>

Forum Research surveyed more than 40,000 Ontario voters this week and found that the Liberals and Conservatives are in a dead heat. But that unprecedented sample size also means that results for each riding can be meaningful.

Interactive Map of Results http://www.thestar.com/staticcontent/1058980

[mountaingal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

thanks for that plexxed. interesting results. a couple of ridings i know the people running - they are new candidates - and they are surprising me with their strength. we'll see what happens election day.

[RichD]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: MGee</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Kathleen Mathurin, running in Scarbrough Centre against the other black woman for the PCs, Carol Williams. Not sure of Kathleen's heritage, she's Canadian born.

</div></div>

Mathurin

that name sound St Lucian

[sagal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: RichD</div><div class="ubbcode-body"><div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: MGee</div><div class="ubbcode-body">
Kathleen Mathurin, running in Scarbrough Centre against the other black woman for the PCs, Carol Williams. Not sure of Kathleen's heritage, she's Canadian born.

</div></div>

Mathurin

that name sound St Lucian </div></div>

...she is of Lucian background

[mountaingal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

none of these Conservative folks won. Carol Williams came second in her riding. Karlene and Kirk both came a distant third.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: MGee</div><div class="ubbcode-body">my jamaican neighbour just had a PC sign put up on her lawn. and di ppl dem at work always look at me funny when i say the black community, generally speaking, leans conservative in its politics.


Carol Williams, a Trinidadian and former Catholic high school principal, running in Scarborough Centre.


Karlene Nation, a Jamaican, and former news anchor, running in York West. A bump on the head unleashed a pituitary tumor that has left her with permanent double vision and no peripheral vision.


Kirk Russell, a Jamaican, apparently owns his own construction company. Running in Davenport.

</div></div>

[mountaingal]

Re: .. Canada Provincial Elections 2011..

all three of these liberal candidates got elected. Michael Coteau, a newcomer, did very well - he got 51 per cent of the vote in the riding previiously held by David Caplan, the guy McGuinty threw under the bus over e-Health.

A former cop and contender for Toronto Police Chief ran against Margarett, and the speculation is that he would take the seat from her, but she held him off.

Bas also held off the NDP challenger, who gave him the strongest fight he's ever had.

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: MGee</div><div class="ubbcode-body">For the Lberals




Margarett Best, Jamaican, replaced another Jamaican, Mary Anne Chambers, in the riding of Scarborough Guildwood. Was Minister for Health Promotion and Sport.


[
Bas Balkissoon, Guyanese, incumbent in Scarborough Rouge River. Longtime politician, started on city council, took over the seat from another Jamaican, Alvin Curling.



Michael Coteau - didnt say where im born, so am going to presume he's Canadian born. Running in Don Valley East. Did a lot of work in the community of Malvern, which has a large black community. </div></div>